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If high interest rates persist, transitioning to a net zero global economy will be even harder and more costly. The higher cost of borrowing negatively affects renewables and nascent technologies, compared to more established oil and gas, and metals and mining sectors, which remain somewhat insulated.
The acceleration of the energy transition means gas resource holders increasingly face a choice: follow the established pathway and develop new LNG export facilities or pivot into developing blue ammonia.
The energy transition will require oil and gas for decades to come, but the supply of lower-cost, lower-carbon “advantaged” barrels remain scarce, threatening emissions targets and causing upstream providers to pivot to new strategies, according to “Scraping the Barrel” a new Horizons analysis from Wood Mackenzie.
China’s renewables manufacturing has emerged from 2021 bigger and more competitive than ever before. Western markets are benefitting from trading with the IKEA of the energy transition, but balancing reliance on China’s technology providers with local interests is now a key political as well as environmental challenge, says Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie, releases its Global gas and LNG – 6 things to watch for in 2022 report.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis reveals that sustainability and resilience will be at the heart of the oil and gas industry story in 2021.
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry is about to face its first seasonal demand contraction since 2012, with demand in summer 2020 expected to fall 2.7% or 3 million tonnes (Mt) year-on-year, says Wood Mackenzie.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
The oil price crash has hit the upstream sector hard. Deep cuts are being made across the board, but it will have a dramatic impact on the industry’s project pipeline. Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes almost all pre-FID projects will be deferred. Of the 50+ projects we identified with potential to go ahead this year, only 10 have a chance of proceeding, but all are at risk.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
After over a year of trade tensions, the US and China signed a “phase one” trade deal on 16 January. As part of the deal, China has agreed to increase the value of energy imports by US$52.4 billion above 2017 levels over the next two years. What could it mean for the oil market?
Wood Mackenzie's Gavin Thompson provides a commentary on the US-China Phase One trade deal
Wood Mackenzie believes that discovering new value requires going beyond isolated datasets. The solution lies in data consortiums – cooperative platforms where companies can safely share quality data.
In a newly published report, Wood Mackenzie notes that the deepwater industry appears in good health, following a sustained cost reduction through the downturn. However this hard work is in danger of being undone, as impending cyclical cost inflation could raise break-even costs once again.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that global oil and gas development spend needs to increase by around 20% to meet future demand growth and ensure companies sustain production next decade.
Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees OPEC maintaining its role as a key oil supplier through to 2040, although output from non-OPEC producers will help ensure adequate supply in the years to 2030.
The impact of the 2014 oil price collapse is still being felt across the upstream sector. Operators have cut investment, deferred projects and implemented tough cost discipline, slashing US$910 billion from global capital expenditure estimates for 2015-2020. While many operators believe the cuts will stick, a new survey released today by natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie indicates the pictured is more nuanced.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers agree to extend production curbs through 2018
The Trump administration has been championing US energy exports as its preferred instrument for narrowing its trade deficit in the wake of the US shale boom. A combination of rising export capacity in the US, LNG import demand growth in China, and political cheerleading has underpinned an uptick in LNG exports to China this year via third party, spot trades. Will Trump's trip to Beijing seal the deal for some major LNG deals?
If Asia's largest upstream players want to grow production, Wood Mackenzie expects them to diversify into the US tight oil market.
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