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Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decent recovery in seaborne supply will continue to feature prominently in the iron ore industry in 2020. Prices will fall, with annual average price forecast for 2020 at $80/t.
On 19 January, China's National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced policies aimed at restricting production, sale, and use of single-use plastic products.
Wood Mackenzie's Gavin Thompson provides a commentary on the US-China Phase One trade deal
Volkswagen has pledged to become carbon-neutral by 2050. Included in its roadmap for reaching this target is a plan to manufacture 22 million electric vehicles by 2028. Wood Mackenzie expects the company to miss this target. However, according to Wood Mackenzie's analysis, VW will hit 14 million EVs by 2028 - making it the world's largest EV manufacturer by the end of the decade.
This year may prove to be a strong one for the refining sector, but 2020 has had a difficult start. Wood Mackenzie expects some turbulence this year as a number of factors come together – geopolitical risk, the impact of IMO 2020 regulations, and US tight oil production slowing, among them.
The near-term impact of the coronavirus outbreak on oil demand remains uncertain as much depends upon when and how China’s manufacturing industry restarts after the currently extended Lunar New Year public holiday.
Speaking after French major Total announced it planned to buy a 50% stake in Indian company Adani Green Energy’s solar unit, Tom Heggarty, principal analyst with Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Practice, said: “Total has been extremely active in the power and renewables M&A market as it seeks to diversify its activities and grow its exposure to the zero-carbon power sector."
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
The travel ban announced by US President Donald Trump today is likely to have an immediate impact on jet fuel demand and prices across Europe and the US.
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
The upstream oil and gas sector faces unprecedented uncertainty. It is clear oil companies must act quickly. Cuts to discretionary investment will be immediate and deep. While there are parallels to 2015-16, many things have moved on since the last downturn.
The global oil market has been hit hard with collapsing demand while OPEC+ abandoned its production restraint and supply began rising. Topics will include: • The outlook for global oil demand in 2020 – how low can it go? • China demand is stabilizing – Will US and Europe follow that path? • The impact of low oil prices on US Lower 48 • OPEC and non-OPEC supply: What is up and what is down • Implications for 2020-2021 oil prices
The Majors have reacted swiftly to the oil price collapse. What are the levers they can pull if oil prices remain low? • Have they cut enough? • Have the cuts been to the bone? • Can M&A save the day? • Are dividends at risk?
Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis reveals that Australia’s next wave of LNG projects are likely to be delayed.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Join Wood Mackenzie for its new webinar series, Connecting Conversations. Twice a month, we will bring together a panel of experts to discuss energy’s most pressing questions.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
In this webinar, our power analysts will discuss trends they’re seeing in CAISO and answer questions about the impacts the coronavirus is having on the region.
Please join us on Wednesday, April 22nd for a presentation and discussion with Julian Kettle, Vice Chairman of Metals and Mining at Wood Mackenzie. With over 30 years in the industry, Julian is well placed to talk through previous mining downturns, what we can expect in the current market and how it will affect the Energy Transition for metals: • The energy transition: a double-edged sword for metals • Is carbon the new differentiator for metals? • Where is the value in a decarbonising world?
South Korea's hot metal production will decline by 4.2 Mt or almost 10% in 2020. There is of course a risk that production decline would be greater, if containment of the virus is unsuccessful.
Commenting after Shell announced its intention to become net-zero company by 2050, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “This is an evolution of the net carbon footprint ambition that Shell unveiled in November 2017.
Please join us on Wednesday, May 20th for a presentation and discussion with Cicero Machado, Principal Analyst, Americas Iron Ore and Steel at Wood Mackenzie. In this 45-minute webinar will discuss: Vale: terrible 2019, challenging 2020. What’s next? How close is Samarco to come back online? CSN and Minas-Rio: at full speed! Junior miners and projects: yes, there is more supply from Brazil potentially reaching the seaborne market! How “premium” is the “premium” iron ore product from Brazil? Cash costs: FX and (low) oil prices to drive costs to a record-low We will have a Q&A session afterwards.
This webinar will analyse the impact of the coronavirus and the subsequent precipitous drop in oil prices on the Majors’ new energy strategies. We will look at how the announced cost cutting measures may affect the peers’ carbon reduction and renewables budgets. We will also discuss a deepening transatlantic divide between the European and the US Majors and key reasons that underpin their different approaches to the energy transition.
Is coronavirus accelerating the zinc supply side correction?
How coronavirus altered the path of iron ore and steel markets
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