A close-up of a row of wind turbines in the open sea,

2024 outlook

Wind: predictions for 2024

From a record level of offshore wind tenders to a long-awaited recovery for the global wind energy market, a look at the key themes and trends for global wind in the year ahead

In this report:

  • 2024 will bring a long-awaited recoveryfor the global wind energy market
  • The Chinese wind energy market will remain the largest in the world in 2024, with increasing global ambitions
  • A record level of tenders for offshore wind

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1 minute read

The wind energy landscape is poised for a significant turnaround in 2024 after grappling with challenges in 2023, particularly outside of China where onshore wind markets contracted by 11%. Global wind project development faced hurdles like fluctuating policies, elevated equipment costs, high interest rates, permitting issues and transmission delays. However, the Chinese wind energy market remained resilient, set to install over half the world's wind energy capacity in 2024.

Expectations for a recovery in 2024 are supported by record wind turbine order backlogs, unprecedented policy momentum globally, and increased efforts by governments to accelerate wind energy deployment to meet climate goals. Europe, particularly Spain, is anticipated to experience substantial growth, driven by improved permitting and policy support. The Middle East and Africa are also poised for significant market expansion, with notable growth in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.

Our onshore and offshore wind reports emphasise the need for Western wind turbine OEMs to return to profitability, highlighting a slowdown in product innovation and a focus on simplifying portfolios. While Chinese OEMs continue to introduce new turbine products, signs of vulnerability emerge as turbine prices hit record lows, leading some to diversify into project development and export markets.

Onshore wind in 2024

In the onshore wind sector, a crucial focus on fleet reliability and operations and maintenance (O&M) profitability takes center stage. As the global wind energy market surpasses 1 TeraWatt of installed capacity, O&M businesses are becoming critical for OEMs' financial recovery, with services order backlogs surpassing turbine supply order backlogs.

Offshore wind in 2024

The offshore wind sector, which faced setbacks in 2023, is expected to rebound in 2024 with tangible opportunities and a record number of tenders. Governments and bidders will play a crucial role in getting pricing right, given the increased focus on the bottom line. Our report also points to challenges such as supply chain constraints, transmission planning barriers and the need for adjustments to 2030 offshore wind targets.

In summary, 2024 holds the promise of a global wind energy resurgence, with key areas of focus including market recovery, reliability, profitability for OEMs and the offshore wind sector's evolving dynamics.

Read this year’s onshore and offshore 2024 prediction reports (linked below) for in-depth analysis of the trends and developments shaping the wind energy landscape in 2024.

Read our 2024 outlooks for onshore and offshore wind:

  • Opinion

    Onshore wind: 2024 outlook

    2024 will be a transformative year for onshore wind energy, bringing promises of market recovery, accelerated growth and a renewed focus on profita...

    Get the report Onshore wind: 2024 outlook
  • Opinion

    Offshore wind: 2024 outlook

    In 2024, tangible opportunities, record-level tenders and strategic shifts in the supply chain set the stage for a rebound from the challenges face...

    Get the reportOffshore wind: 2024 outlook