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Since the fall in oil prices in 2014, oil majors and international oil companies (IOCs) have accelerated a shift towards resource themes and regions offering higher returns, lower complexity and shorter timeframes, away from the more challenging regions such as Southeast Asia. To date, close to 800 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of the region's resources have left the hands of majors and IOCs.
Looking at behind-the-meter, Australia was the biggest residential storage market in the world in 2017, with a tripling of residential storage deployments over the previous year. High retail electricity rates and diminishing or expiring feed-in tariffs have encouraged residential solar customers to choose storage for self-consumption benefits. As a result, over the past few years, Australia has been the preferred testbed for new residential energy storage products, as several technology vendors have first introduced their residential product portfolios in the country.
Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees OPEC maintaining its role as a key oil supplier through to 2040, although output from non-OPEC producers will help ensure adequate supply in the years to 2030.
Higher base chemicals demand and feedstock security for heavy naphtha are driving the development of a new wave of mega-integrated refinery and chemical sites in China. Private Chinese chemical producers, including Hengli and Rong Sheng, are back-integrating their chemical plants with refineries by building mega-integrated facilities. Wood Mackenzie expects these projects to come on stream in the next 12 to 24 months.
India's oil demand is expected to grow by 3.5 million barrels per day (b/d) from 2017 to 2035, accounting for one-third of global oil demand growth. India's demand is driven by rising income levels, an expanding middle class and a growing need for mobility.
In the 12 months up until June 2018, China was the second largest buyer of US LNG, accounting for approximately 3 mmtpa of US LNG, with Shell being the largest seller. However as the US-China trade dispute escalated, Chinese buyers have gradually reduced purchases of US LNG.
India’s renewables target of 175 GW capacity (100 GW of solar and 75 GW of wind) by 2022 is an ambitious endeavour. Even with significant cost declines, Wood Mackenzie expects about 76% of the target to be met by 2022 and this would still be a noteworthy achievement. Wood Mackenzie's solar analyst Rishab Shrestha explains why.
Asia-Pacific's oil and gas sector looks set to rebound over the next 12 months as rising demand, stronger commodity prices and an uptick in M&A activity bring greater confidence to the region. Wood Mackenzie predicts rising Asian LNG demand, the return of China's NOCs to growth mode and new appetite for upstream investment to be key factors influencing the sector, not only Asia-Pacific, but also globally into 2019.
After a decade of stellar growth, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that solar demand in the Asia-Pacific will decline for the first time this year. Compared to 2017, the region's solar demand will dip 18% to 59 GW in 2018 due to declining installations in China, India and Japan.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that global oil and gas development spend needs to increase by around 20% to meet future demand growth and ensure companies sustain production next decade.
In a newly published report, Wood Mackenzie notes that the deepwater industry appears in good health, following a sustained cost reduction through the downturn. However this hard work is in danger of being undone, as impending cyclical cost inflation could raise break-even costs once again.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers agree to extend production curbs through 2018
The impact of the 2014 oil price collapse is still being felt across the upstream sector. Operators have cut investment, deferred projects and implemented tough cost discipline, slashing US$910 billion from global capital expenditure estimates for 2015-2020. While many operators believe the cuts will stick, a new survey released today by natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie indicates the pictured is more nuanced.
Historically, coal has played a key role in meeting Asia's growing power demand. However environmental concerns has led to more stringent regulations and commitments towards tighter emission controls globally. Increasingly over the last year, financing institutions (mostly export credit agencies (ECAs) in OECD countries and European banks) have announced plans to stop investing in coal power projects. This could impact Asia since we expect growth in power demand through to 2035, and this calls for new power capacity, including coal-fired ones.
India is poised to double its oil product demand growth (190 kb/d) in 2018 after a sluggish 2017, when demand grew by only 93 kb/d. Last year, demand growth was at its slowest in the past three years.
Wood Mackenzie estimates LNG trucking capacity in China to double to 38 million tonnes (mt) by 2025. China is the world's largest LNG trucking market. In 2017, 19 mt of LNG was transported via tanker truck from domestic liquefaction plants and LNG import terminals to downstream markets. This volume accounts for 12% of total gas consumption.
As 2018 draws to a close, Wood Mackenzie's experts discusses five key themes to look out for in Australasia's oil and gas industry in 2019.
Following today's announcement by Thailand's Department of Mineral Fuels (DMF) that PTTEP has won the auction round for both G1/61 (Erawan) and G2/61 (Bongkot) PSCs after putting an aggressive bid on the gas price and the profit share, Wood Mackenzie's research analyst Jean-Baptiste Berchoteau shares some insights.
The two polyester feedstocks – purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) – in the world's most important polyester market China, have recently moved towards a total paper business.
Following the announcement by Indonesia's upstream regulator SKK Migas on a gas discovery in the country, Wood Mackenzie's research director Andrew Harwood provides a commentary.
In today's meeting of the National People’s Congress, China announced slower growth this year, with its gross domestic product (GDP) growth targeted at a range of 6 to 6.5% in 2019.
Refinery capacity is expected to continue growing in the medium term, but the pace of growth is expected to slow down considerably. Capacity additions are mainly from crude-to-chemicals projects, which aim to maximise naphtha production to meet the increasing petrochemical feedstock demand.
Rumours of a ban on Australian thermal coal to China swept through the thermal coal market early March while in late February five north-eastern ports in China implemented changes to clearance procedures for Australian thermal coal. One thing appears certain - Chinese demand for Australian thermal coal has been significantly impacted, at least in the short-term. Even if an outright ban is not implemented, a three-month customs clearance time will significantly increase the cost and increase the risk associated with Australian thermal cargoes.
The vehicle industry’s shift towards cleaner technology is poised to throw a wrench in the oil market – but likely not for another decade. Demand growth from light vehicles and two-wheelers, a key sector which accounts for roughly 30% of the near 100 million b/d in global crude consumption, are expected to slow down over the next 10 years, and eventually begin to decline after 2030, with the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).
In the same week that Shell agreed to explore for shale oil in China, BP is reported to be exiting its two Sichuan basin shale gas blocks.
In a recently published report, Wood Mackenzie projects solar-plus-storage prices or levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for both utility-scale and distributed commercial & industrial (C&I) segments to decline considerably over the next five years.
The solar market in China could see long-term benefits from major government policy changes that move the country away from federal feed-in tariffs and embrace unsubsidised business models.
According to research by Wood Mackenzie, a second wave of LNG investments is building, both in Australia and globally, and these projects need to compete to progress
Adani gets environmental approval for Carmichael project
Rising natural gas production in Argentina, coupled with competitive global LNG transportation costs, is expected to position the country as an emerging source of gas supply to Asia during peak demand periods, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
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