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OPEC+ is, as expected, holding firm to its decision to increase supply, gradually and carefully, over the coming months.
In its rebound from the 2020 downturn, Brent flirted with US$70 per barrel. Higher prices in 2021 mean higher cash flow for producers, perhaps even record-setting highs. Have the good times returned? Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes operators need to be cautious.
If the world acts decisively to limit global warming to 2°C by 2050, the scale of change will revolutionise the energy industry. Progressive electrification will squeeze the most polluting hydrocarbons out of the energy mix, nearly eliminating their markets. Oil demand will shrink, and with it, so will the power of major oil producers. Gas demand will remain resilient, but business models will need to evolve.
Asia’s ambitious biofuels blending targets will be a challenge to meet due to supply constraints and food security concerns, says Wood Mackenzie.
Santos has sanctioned the Barossa project, which extends the life of Darwin LNG (DLNG) beyond 2040.
Sales of China’s new energy vehicles (NEV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) combined are expected to rise 15-fold or more by 2035 with their share in total new car sales exceeding 80%, says Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report reveals that China’s march towards carbon neutrality by 2060 can complement both energy security and economic goals.
The latest acquisitions by NEO Energy and Waldorf Production continue what has been blockbuster start to the year for UK M&A with buyers and sellers buoyed by the recent recovery in prices. Just over two months into 2021 and UK disclosed deal spend has reached US$2.7 billion, almost equalling last year’s total, making it one of the hottest markets globally.
OPEC+ took the market by surprise when it decided to roll over its quota, saying that rather than anticipate a demand recovery, the group would wait to see it actually recover. The market was expecting a substantial increase in production because a tightening in the supply and demand balance is already evident.
Qatar Petroleum announced that it has taken final investment decision (FID) on the North Field East project.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key themes – OPEC+ production, Covid-19 developments, and the energy transition.
As Biden’s inauguration approaches, Wood Mackenzie experts share how his administration could impact trade, climate change goals, and changes to the energy sector in Asia Pacific.
2021 will be a defining year for the gas and LNG industry, says Wood Mackenzie in its latest outlook report.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report shows that over three quarters or 77% of new LNG supply are at risk under a 2-degree scenario.
Tense negotiations and rumours of a rift between Saudi Arabia and UAE ended with a compromise deal for OPEC+ on 3 December 2020. Despite concerns on oversupply for Q1 2021, the group agreed to increase output by 500,000 b/d in January. Production restraint is set at minus 7.2 million b/d instead of the Q4 2020 level of minus 7.7 million b/d.
OPEC held its scheduled bi-annual meeting virtually on 30 November 2020. Though the group was unable to reach an agreement at that meeting, up for discussion is whether the production restraint would be eased starting 1 January 2021.
Joe Biden offered American voters a radically different vision of energy policy from President Donald Trump, focused on addressing the threat of climate change. He will enter the White House with a goal of setting the US on course for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and will take the US back into the Paris climate agreement.
Wood Mackenzie’s 2020 Energy and Commodities Summit Asia Pacific edition kickstarted yesterday. Experts shared their views on how the energy sector is changing in light of the oil price crash, Covid-19 and the latest carbon-neutrality trends.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis shows over US$5 trillion of investments would be needed for China to reach its pathway for carbon-neutrality by 2060.
On 22 September, China announced its ambition to be carbon-neutral by 2060. Wood Mackenzie experts weigh in on what this means.
Global regasification (regas) capacity under construction is expected to hit a 10-year high at 144 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) in 2020, says Wood Mackenzie.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, oil products demand in Asia Pacific is expected to fall by 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) year-on-year in 2020.
With the cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) on 5 July, the project becomes the northeast US’ infrastructure market’s third high-profile victim in the last six months. Dominion and Duke Energy’s decision to pull the plug on ACP comes after the cancellation of the Constitution Pipeline in February and state water permit denial effectively scuppering the Northeast Supply Enhancement project in May.
Speaking after BP announced it was writing down as much as $17.5 billion when it reports its second quarter results, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, said: “The impairment shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but the implications – near-term and long-term – are significant.”
OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
The UK gas balance has reached a deadlock for the summer. Resilient UK production, Norwegian imports and baseload LNG imports are overwhelming the market with supply. And with lockdown placing huge pressure on electricity and fuel markets, demand will be weak throughout the summer.
Bangladesh is expected to double its fossil fuel imports to 32 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) between 2020 and 2030, says Wood Mackenzie.
European gas storage is almost full to the brim – and with the mild weather, coronavirus lockdowns hitting demand and an over-supplied market, levels are not likely to drop soon. New analysis from natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie suggests October may prove critical for the market – and highlights a potential solution to the storage crunch.
Commenting after Shell announced its intention to become net-zero company by 2050, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “This is an evolution of the net carbon footprint ambition that Shell unveiled in November 2017.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
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