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A teenage growth spurt – US onshore liquids production is on a tear again. Already rebounding from the downturn for a year, right now it’s turbo-charged.
Mexico is hot – as hot as a habanero, the spiciest of Mexicano chillies. The bidding round for deep water blocks this week has attracted a who’s who of industry players, scooping up two-thirds of the blocks on offer.
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
Obstacles to M&A have abounded these last three years. Money’s been tight, and for many companies acquisitive growth wasn’t needed after a period of heavy of investment earlier in the decade.
What are the prospects for tight oil outside the US? It's a question frequently asked on my travels, and with good reason. If US tight oil can emerge so quickly to disrupt the market, perhaps other plays out there might have the same effect.
Visiting Asia this month was an opportunity to gauge how oil and gas companies there are faring.
Why feeding the dog can undermine trust in the oil industry
Low oil prices, severe financial stretch, even moments of existential contemplation – it’s hardly been the right environment for successful business development.
US tight oil’s second phase of growth is well underway. We expect tight oil production to double from 4.7 million b/d today to around 9.5 million b/d in the mid-2020s – and our view is by no means the most bullish.
The intensifying drilling up of the Permian Basin in Texas isn’t just delivering rapid growth in tight oil. There are huge volumes of gas too, the effects of which are rippling out into the US market and may have big implications for global gas prices too.
If the demand side of the equation is relatively predictable, oil supply is notoriously difficult. Many of the market’s most colourful moments through history have revolved around supply, with OPEC at the centre of most in the last six decades.
Is the oil industry on its way to recovery? Sanctioned projects are smaller and cheaper, while US tight oil buffers the decline in conventional spend.
The biggest current recruiter in upstream? Digitalisation, by a distance. Technology is already playing a part in downstream’s recovery from its lows a few years ago.
The industry is adapting to low oil prices. But can upstream grow in this environment? The question is a profound one, the answer in reality more about sustaining the business and maximising returns rather than pursuing growth.
2017 is set to be to be the third year Brent has traded at under half the heady levels of 2014.
New thinking and new ways are needed if operators are to usher in a new era of investment in conventional projects. A dip in oil prices below US$50/bbl may be just what’s needed to concentrate minds and encourage companies to challenge industry conventions.
Andrew Latham, our Head of Exploration Research, has built a global creaming curve for conventional exploration outside the USL48. Three themes stand out.
The firmer oil price we expect can only embolden the already resurgent US tight oil industry which is on course to displace the 1 million b/d OPEC has cut within the year. Three main aspects of the decision stand out.
‘Underwhelmed’ sums up investors’ indifferent response to the Majors’ Q1 results. What does upstream have to do to win back favour?
We forecast the share of gas in the peer group’s production will increase from 42% currently to over 50% by the end of the 2020s. ENI and BP will reach 60%, which is also Total’s 2035 target. There are three main themes behind the ‘dash for gas’.
How do traditional LNG suppliers, a group dominated by some of the biggest oil and gas producers, play a part in sorting things out? As the industry gathers in Tokyo for Gastech, we think there are four main elements that need addressed.
Why have oil prices come under renewed downward pressure? Our Macro Oils team, led by Ed Rawle, sees three main reasons.
Our Corporate Analysis team, led by Tom Ellacott, shows that for the 60 companies we cover in depth, net debt has increased by 22% or US$142bn since 2014.
Canada's investor sentiment soured by environmental concerns and competition for capital from tight oil have already begun to reshape the domestic corporate landscape.
Not long ago, growth was the big thing. This results season suggests growth targets are making a come back.
If oil markets remain oversupplied and prices modest, there’s much Upstream operators can learn from Downstream, which has emerged thriving from the doldrums of a decade ago.
Despite the uptick in numbers, investment in greenfield conventional projects is stuck at a low ebb.
A strengthening flow of deals is a clear indicator that the M&A market is getting back to business as usual, and companies are starting to think of growth again.
Digital technology has a major part to play in the next stage of structural cost reduction, but oil and gas production is far removed from the leading edge of the 21st century tech revolution.
Chief Analyst Simon Flowers expects prices to rise and US tight oil to lead the industry out of the downturn.
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