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As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
The near-term impact of the coronavirus outbreak on oil demand remains uncertain as much depends upon when and how China’s manufacturing industry restarts after the currently extended Lunar New Year public holiday.
This year may prove to be a strong one for the refining sector, but 2020 has had a difficult start. Wood Mackenzie expects some turbulence this year as a number of factors come together – geopolitical risk, the impact of IMO 2020 regulations, and US tight oil production slowing, among them.
Wood Mackenzie's Gavin Thompson provides a commentary on the US-China Phase One trade deal
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020.
It will be a noteworthy year for the North Sea – companies will increase production for the first time since 2017 and the outlook for both exploration and investment is looking healthy. The region will remain a global hotspot for deals as the corporate landscape continues to evolve. Crucially, the North Sea will also see major steps towards decarbonisation.
After a marathon meeting, running late into the night of 5 December, the OPEC+ group has agreed to continue its current production restraint of 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d), and will add a further 0.5 million b/d of supply cuts through to March 2020.
OPEC+ gathers today and tomorrow to decide if the group should roll over its production restraint agreement or consider deeper cuts. The current agreement to reduce output by 1.2 million b/d runs to end March 2020. Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, said: “The idea of deeper cuts has been broached, but we consider that less likely to reach full agreement than a rollover of the standing agreement. The need for production restraint is clear. Slower US production growth is not enough to offset the ongoing imbalance between global supply and demand.”
On 25 November, Qatar Petroleum (QP) announced that it will boost output from Qatar LNG by 64% - from 77 million tonnes per annum (tpa) at present to 126 million tpa by 2027 – following a successful appraisal of the North Field’s onshore extension, near Ras Laffan Industrial City.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report reveals that LNG sellers with contracts linked to JCC (Japan Crude Cocktail) could lose some US$15 billion in unearned revenues. This is a result of the IMO 2020 regulation limiting sulphur content of marine fuels to up to 0.5%, which directly affects the price of sour crudes such as those composing the JCC mix. The IMO 2020 kicks in on 1st January 2020.
The energy transition is undoubtedly impacting corporate upstream strategies in significant and disruptive ways. Coupled with the post-2014 downturn in oil prices, Wood Mackenzie sees seismic changes in the way the industry allocates capital across development, exploration and in particular M&A.
Speaking after this morning’s PSC round, Juliana Miguez, from Wood Mackenzie’s Latin America upstream team, said: “Petrobras has returned to the headlines. One day after it dominated the Transfer of Rights Surplus round, the NOC placed the only bid of today’s auction."
Total announced today its partnership with Adani Group which includes two LNG terminals, Dhamra in East India and potentially Mundra in the West, as well as Adani Gas Limited, one of the 4 main distributors of city gas in India of which Adani holds 74.8% and of which Total will acquire 37.4%.
Santos announced today its plans to acquire ConocoPhillips’s northern Australian portfolio. This is a logical and attractive transaction for a number of reasons.
Natural resources research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie launches the world’s first Global Upstream Valuation solution, enabling organisations from the largest oil and gas companies to global banks to value assets around the globe in seconds.
First oil from Johan Sverdrup – Norway’s sixth-largest discovery, with reserves of around 2.7 billion barrels – is a red-letter day for the partners and the Norwegian state. The decision to sanction the development was the country's largest final investment decision in more than 30 years.
Wood Mackenzie has identified the five most likely disposal candidates after ExxonMobil signalled the start of its Asia Pacific divestment programme. Together, these opportunities are worth US$5 billion, and could contribute a third of the Supermajor's global divestment target.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, coal will continue to be the dominant fuel source in power generation, peaking at 2027 before slowing down and accounting for 36% of the region’s generation mix in 2040.
Since the turn of the decade, it’s been a frenetic period for M&A in the North Sea. Against a backdrop of oil price volatility and a dramatically changing corporate landscape, activity reached record levels. But have acquisitions created value so far? Wood Mackenzie recently analysed 55 of the largest North Sea deals announced between 2012 and 2018 from today’s vantage point to quantify underlying value creation.
Speaking after BP announced the sale of its Alaska business to Hilcorp in a US$5.6 billion deal, Wood Mackenzie analyst Rowena Gunn said: “The Majors are making progress with their divestment campaigns. This will mean long-held assets and territories will be let go. BP made such a deal today with its sale of all US Alaska assets to privately-owned Hilcorp."
In 2017 Technip and FMC Technologies completed one of the hallmark oilfield service company mergers of the cycle. The business plans to split in the first half of 2020 – but not back into Technip and FMC - rather into ‘upstream’ and ‘mid/downstream’.
Commenting on reports that ExxonMobil is preparing to sell its UK North Sea portfolio, Neivan Boroujerdi, principal analyst, North Sea upstream, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “A proposed UK exit was expected. We value the portfolio at around US$2 billion.
The Jethro-1 well, drilled in the Orinduik block, offshore Guyana, has delivered for Tullow Oil, with chief executive Paul McDade saying the prospect could hold more than 100 million barrels of recoverable oil, subject to appraisal.
Murphy Oil has reached a Final Investment Decision (FID) regarding the King's Quay facility, Khaleesi/Mormont and Samurai developments in deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Commenting, Mfon Usoro, Wood Mackenzie analyst said: “Murphy’s sanction of the trio of projects including the King’s Quay facility, K...
Wood Mackenzie believes that discovering new value requires going beyond isolated datasets. The solution lies in data consortiums – cooperative platforms where companies can safely share quality data.
Brazil’s natural gas market reforms have taken a major step forward, with plans in place which are set to open up opportunities across the gas value chain, and boost investment in the country’s pre-salt.
Wood Mackenzie, the global natural resources research consultancy, announces today its partnership with P2 Energy Solutions to better analyse current and future well spacing.
The Dominican Republic today launched its first licensing round, putting 14 blocks across its on- and offshore basins up for bid.
French Major Total has sold its stakes in 10 UK North Sea fields to Petrogas NEO, a new joint venture between Petrogas and HitecVision, for US$635 million. The asset package includes operated and non-operated assets, which will produce 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) this year. The assets hold over 30 million barrels of oil equivalent in remaining reserves.
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