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As the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent stock market rout and collapse in oil prices now highlights, central banks are critical players in efforts to ensure economic stability through monetary policy and market intervention.
Recent events have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, the likes of which have never been seen before. Do these clouds carry any silver lining? Listen to the latest episode of the Asia Pacific Energy podcast.
Oil demand has gone into a tailspin. We now expect Q1 global oil consumption to be 2.7 million b/d lower than the same period a year ago.
Fast, deep cuts lie ahead in the Asia Pacific upstream sector in the wake of the oil price crash.
As the battle against the coronavirus outbreak intensifies across the globe, positive news is in short supply. But in a world turned upside down, rising levels of air pollution in China indicate that a recovery is now underway.
The coronavirus outbreak means the outlook is evolving quickly. Here’s this week’s view from our analysts.
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of the 14th five-year plan early next year, recent announcements from several key players in the country’s power sector indicate China is considering a major investment spree in coal-fired generation.
Already oversupplied, the global LNG market has come out of a mild winter straight into the headlock of a global pandemic that is impacting demand across the world’s major gas markets as rapidly as it is damaging their economies.
Competition is fierce and struggling Asian refiners must now take full advantage of the abundant crude options to maximise their margins.
Indeed, many Asian national oil companies (NOCs) have emphasised that they are seeking to broadly maintain their 2020 capital budgets for domestic investment.
Pre-pandemic, APAC would account for 67% of global power demand growth through to 2040. Such growth would require over US$1 trillion in new investment. Will the coronavirus pandemic derail this?
But the appetite of China’s consumers for Aussie tenderloin and Merlot is insignificant in terms of overall trade. Iron ore, coal and LNG are what really matter.
Clearly, economic and oil price recovery remains at risk. How much upstream capital will NOCs, Majors, IOCs and regional players allocate to Asia Pacific in this environment?
I asked our experts what they believe governments and companies should be doing to ensure that they emerge stronger from the crisis.
Make no mistake, China is the world’s most important gas market. Why? Because today, as demand stalls in so many parts of the world, China is the engine of global gas growth.
Global gas demand has proved resilient despite widespread coronavirus lockdowns - but supply dynamics are more challenging. Will gas and LNG demand continue to recover? And what forces will shape the market over the next two decades?
Bold assumptions, but not unrealistic. But what would happen with a second wave of prolonged, nationwide lockdowns? What would this mean for economic activity? How will oil and gas supply and prices be affected? Will Asia’s demand-led recovery be blown off course?
With declining production from the joint venture’s fields, the NWS may be forced to reduce exports unless new gas is secured.
Current low gas prices are supporting demand growth in the sector and encouraging pro-gas policies and infrastructure developments
Halting the pandemic and rebuilding economies are the most urgent goals for the immediate future. Wood Mackenzie estimates that almost US$20 trillion – equivalent to a quarter of global GDP – will go towards stimulus packages, public health spending and delivering a vaccine over the next 12-18 months alone.
The Asia Pacific power generation market will attract US$1.5 trillion of investment in the next 10 years. So what are the opportunities in the world’s fastest-growing power market?
Despite being both the world’s largest energy market and largest carbon emitter, China’s position has long been that responsibility to reduce global emissions rests with rich countries: you broke it, you fix it.
The Tokyo Olympics could be a game-changer for sustainable textiles – but some momentum has been lost.
The reality is that Northeast Asia’s carbon neutral targets will be very difficult to meet by renewables alone, given the need to massively increase electrification. With the size of its future economy, the scale of the challenge is up to 10 times greater in China than Japan or South Korea. Given this, what will be the role of nuclear?
So, when freezing conditions hit the southern US last week, resulting in feedgas into LNG plants collapsing from above 10 bcfd to just below 2 bcfd, and with some Texas price markers soaring north of US$400/mmbtu, anxiety levels should have been rising.
The year ahead will shape the role of gas in the energy transition. Read our predictions for the top five global trends for gas and LNG, and how they could play out in Europe, North America and Southeast Asia.
None of us could have foreseen what happened this winter. Cost of supply became an irrelevance as Asian spot LNG prices went into orbit. From lows of around US$2/mmbtu in April, the JKM price soared north of US$32/mmbtu last week, with media reports of Trafigura purchasing a cargo from Total at US$39.3/mmbtu.
While it may well claim the crown of world’s largest LNG exporter in 2021, Australia faces rising problems with its gas.
When President Xi Jinping spoke of the risks of ‘tech wars’ at the World Economic Forum’s virtual Davos Agenda event on Monday, there was little doubt who he was aiming at. At a White House briefing later that day, press secretary Jen Psaki stated that “Technology is of course at the centre of US-China competition.”
Japan’s trading houses are re-thinking their long-term strategies around upstream investment.
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