Oil and refined products in H2 2025: a commodity trader’s guide

In an energy hungry world beset by growing trade tensions and shifting energy policy, volatility creates opportunity for commodity traders who can stay one step ahead of market shifts. So, what are the opportunities and challenges set to shape crude and refined product markets as 2025 progresses?  

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Oil demand growth 

Oil demand growth for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 has been revised downward from the start of the year, as the threat of US sanctions weighs on global economic growth. As of end June 2025, Wood Mackenzie’s mid-year forecast for total oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 is around 900 kb/d, much lower than the January 2025 projections of 1.2 and 1.3 million b/d respectively. These projections are based on global trade barriers increasing but an all-out trade war is avoided. We expect that the US negotiate trade deals with its trading partners over the next 6-12 months so that the US effective tariff rate settles at an average of 10% by the end of 2026, which is around four times higher than 2024 levels.  

Global oil demand growth in 2025 is to be challenging to measure with high frequency data as it is geographically diffuse, with only modest contributions from the major economics of US and China, as shown in Figure 1. 

Uncertainty on global economic growth and oil demand remains, as the US has yet to finalise the tariffs it imposes on imports from its trading partners, with negotiations underway since the US introduced reciprocal tariffs in early April 2025.  

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This report delivers key charts and insights on Oil market over-supply and more. 

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