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  • Inform

    Sichuan earthquake adds to zinc market tightness

    • 10 August 2017

    Suspended mine operations at Longnan as a result of Sichuan earthquake add to zinc market tightness

    $700.00

    Summary

    What's included

    • Document

      Sichuan earthquake adds to zinc market tightness

      PDF 2.20 MB

  • Commodity market report

    Global lead short-term outlook August 2017

    • 31 August 2017

    Lead crept forward slightly, left behind on price by other base metals, despite deepening supply worries as peak metal demand approaches.

    $1,350.00

    Summary

    Laggard lead underperformed against the base metals complex despite gaining 3.3% of value to post an LME price $2373/t at the month end. Lead traded within the confines of $2300 2400/t during August except for a one day price spike up to an eight month high just over $2450/t prompted by mine supply worries stemming from UN sanctions against North Korea. These actions against the pariah state include a ban on lead ore exports of which China is the only taker. This followed on the tails of news that an earthquake in China's Sichuan region could restrict concentrate output. These gains in price were offset from the affects of geopolitical tension again centred on North Korea as increasing bellicose language was exchanged between the leaders of that country and the United States. Worries over the availability of refined metal persisted with stocks continuing to fall on the London and Shanghai metal exchanges although the former has seen a brief levelling off but which is unlikely to persist. Pressure remains on raw materials supply too with a further tightening of North American and Chinese scrap supply just before the peak refined metal demand in the lead up to the seasonal high of the northern hemisphere winter. Evidence for the anxieties affecting smelters' supply worries comes from a further slight fall in treatment charges to range $30 40/t CIF MCP flat for low medium silver concentrate and $20 30/t for high silver material. The current positive arbitrage of $76/t between the LME and SHFE prices equates to an additional $43/t of concentrate in revenue for Chinese smelters. Lead key forecasts 2016 % 2017 % 2018 % 2019 % Global (kt) Mine production 5329 0.5 5288 0.8 5592 5.7 5972 6.8 Refined production 12263 3.8 12409 1.2 12874 3.7 13510 4.9 Consumption 12286 4.1 12544 2.1 12910 2.9 13497 4.5 Concentrate balance 6 123 10 20 In days of requirement 33 24 24 24 Refined market balance 23 135 35 13 In days of requirement 42 38 36 34 Prices Cash LME Price ($/t) 1870 2304 2425 2350 (c/lb) 84.8 104.5 110.0 106.6 Realised TCs ($/t conc) 184 132 132 144 Source Wood Mackenzie

    What's included

    • Document

      Data tables lead STO August 2017.xls

      XLS 293.00 KB

    • Document

      Global lead short-term outlook August 2017

      PDF 504.36 KB

    • Document

      Global lead short-term outlook August 2017

      ZIP 638.40 KB

  • Commodity market report

    Global copper short-term outlook August 2017

    • 31 August 2017

    Copper prices rally sharply on weaker dollar, falling exchange stocks and stronger speculative interest in industrial commodities

    $1,350.00

    Summary

    The copper market has continued to surprise on the upside over the past month. It is fair to suggest that the rise in prices has found its origins in improving global manufacturing and economic activity which has helped support a rise in speculative interest in industrial commodities. Dollar weakness and declining exchange inventories have also provided support. Overall however our view is that prices have run well ahead of the fundamentals. Our forecast for global refined copper demand growth for 2017 remains unchanged at 1.7%. Whilst strong global manufacturing and economic activity so far this year has boosted total copper consumption growth (refined consumption plus scrap) increased scrap usage has limited the extent of the pass through to growth in refined copper consumption. For 2018 19 global refined demand growth is still expected to expand at an annual average rate of 1.8%. Increasing optimism about the long term prospects for the copper price was reflected in the approval of two major new mine construction projects during August; Oz Minerals Carrapateena project and BHP s Spence Growth Option (SGO). The uncertainty surrounding the future of PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) has also lifted slightly during August as Freeport McMoRan announced that is has reached an understanding with the Government of Indonesia regarding a framework to support long term investment plans. Overall buying activity in the copper concentrate market has remained quiet during August and spot TCRCs for clean concentrates are thought to have remained at similar levels to those seen during July. Copper key forecasts 2016 % 2017 % 2018 % 2019 % Global (kt) Total Mine Production 20117 5.0 19662 2.3 20315 3.3 20777 2.3 Total Smelter Production 18546 6.3 18612 0.4 19007 2.1 19426 2.2 Refined Production 22758 3.6 22796 0.2 23257 2.0 23750 2.1 Consumption 22472 2.5 22847 1.7 23222 1.6 23698 2.0 Concentrate Stock Change 99 100 50 50 Metal Market Balance 286 51 35 52 Metal Stocks Days of Cons 75 72 72 71 Prices Cash LME Price ($/t) 4862 5911 6098 6275 (c/lb) 221 268 277 285 Contract TC/RCs (c/lb excl pp) for 30% Cu Conc 25.0 23.7 22.3 22.2 Contract Blister Europe ($/t) 140 160 160 160 Source: Wood Mackenzie 2017

    What's included

    • Document

      Global copper short-term outlook data tables August 2017.xls

      XLS 344.50 KB

    • Document

      Global copper short-term outlook August 2017

      PDF 567.42 KB

    • Document

      Global copper short-term outlook August 2017

      ZIP 696.48 KB

  • Insight

    Value-in-use adjusted iron ore costs Q3 2017

    • 11 September 2017

    Global average value-in-use (VIU) adjusted costs have gone up 14% to US$41.13 in Q3 2017.

    $1,050.00

    Summary

    What's included

    • Document

      china_delivered_viu_adjusted_costs_q3-2017.xls

      XLS 1.71 MB

    • Document

      Value-in-use adjusted iron ore costs Q3 2017

      PDF 312.33 KB

    • Document

      Value-in-use adjusted iron ore costs Q3 2017

      ZIP 728.75 KB