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Sichuan earthquake adds to zinc market tightness
Suspended mine operations at Longnan as a result of Sichuan earthquake add to zinc market tightness
$700.00
Summary
A 7.0 magnitude earthquake which struck Sichuan province on 8 August 2017 has caused strong tremors to be felt in neighbouring provinces. Local safety administration at Longnan city in Gansu province has ordered the suspension of all mining activities until further notice. Longnan area hosts a cluster of zinc mines and contributes to more than 60% of Gansu's zinc production. Suspension of mining will reduce concentrate stocks produced, and adds to zinc market tightness.
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Insight
Value-in-use adjusted iron ore costs Q3 2017
Global average value-in-use (VIU) adjusted costs have gone up 14% to US$41.13 in Q3 2017.
$1,050.00
Summary
Global average value-in-use (VIU) adjusted costs have gone up 14% to US$41.13 in Q3 2017. The increase has been driven by a large rise in Australian VIU adjusted costs but also more recently by a 5% increase in costs in Brazil. Of particular note has been the rise in penalties for alumina and silica content. There is potential for downward pressure on VIU adjusted costs in the last quarter of 2017. Iron ore prices are expected to soften with lower demand in China as steel producers are forced to lower output during the winter months. Lump premiums have also improved which will help lower VIU adjusted costs. However, the reductions will be modest as large discounts for low-grade ore and high penalties for silica and alumina content are likely to remain. Longer term, we expect VIU adjusted costs to rise. Most of this will be driven by factors that producers are unable to control, especially fuel prices.
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Commodity market report
Global copper short-term outlook August 2017
Copper prices rally sharply on weaker dollar, falling exchange stocks and stronger speculative interest in industrial commodities
$1,350.00
Summary
The copper market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. August has seen copper rally to its highest level since September 2014 as the market has benefitted from a combination of dollar weakness, declining exchange inventories, robust macro data and a rise in speculative interest in industrial commodities. In our view, however, prices have run ahead of what is currently justified by the copper market's fundamentals. Lacklustre physical premia indicate that consumers remain well covered for material and overall we expect a broadly balanced market this year.
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Commodity market report
Global lead short-term outlook August 2017
Lead crept forward slightly, left behind on price by other base metals, despite deepening supply worries as peak metal demand approaches.
$1,350.00
Summary
Lead proved to be a laggard during August finishing up 3.3% at $2373/t, barely gaining value and being left behind by the other base metals. Mostly trading in a narrow range, it did manage a one-day flirtation with an eight-month price high, but this lasted just one day. The trigger for this price spike was the UN sanctions again North Korea cutting lead concentrate supplies to China in a time when the latter is desperate for supply. Worries also persist over global refined metal supply with exchange stocks falling further and supply of lead scrap tightening even more as peak demand season approaches.
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