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China's environmental tax law came into force on 1 January 2018. It aims to encourage companies to reduce the amount of pollutants they discharge or pay a levy based on the environmental impact of their emissions. Our analysis indicates the new environmental tax will increase most metal producers' costs only slightly – even if the tax is more strictly enforced and collected. This is because most provinces have kept their tax rates similar to the previous discharge fee rates. In addition, many metal producers are now equipped with technology to reduce their emission levels, after coming under closer scrutiny from Chinese authorities in recent years.

The US sanctions against Russian oligarchs and their companies have thrown the aluminium market into a frenzy. Even before the sanctions were announced, smelters were scraping the bottom of the silos for alumina. The Albras smelter in Brazil became the first casualty of the current alumina squeeze. With no clear timeline for the restart of Alunorte and the loss of output from Aughinish, market participants are now questioning which smelter will be the next to curtail output?

The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2040. The iron ore market is entering a cyclical downturn with the low point occurring in 2019 (price forecast: $62/t CFR). Breakeven analysis suggests a medium term "floor price" of $50-55/t CFR but we peg our forecast above this level to reflect a committed approach to supply side discipline and value maximisation over growth. Margin compression is inevitable but the transition towards a quality based multi-tiered pricing structure means that suppliers of high grade sinter fines and concentrates will fare relatively well, while suppliers of low grade sinter fines will need to continue offering heavy discounts.

Index of Industrial production grew more than 7% in December and February. Cement production was up 20%, steel production 5% and power generation 6% during December to February period as compared to the year before. This was all on a low base, as late 2016 and early 2017 was impacted by Demonetisation in November 2016. However, all this growth resulted in a 5% increase in coal demand over the same period. With several factors supporting India's growth story in 2018, we look at the potential impact of this demand on the seaborne market for thermal and metallurgical coal.