Although September proved to be another mild month keeping the forecast for natural gas prices in check power prices surprised to the upside in a number of markets over the past few weeks. Power prices saw particular uplift during the last week of September in PJM and the Northeast with temperatures reaching the mid to high 80s. LMPs in New York and New England neared the 300 $/MWh range on the 26th. Prices topped out on Long Island at just over 300 $/MWh. Many LMPs also reached the 150 to 250 $/MWh range in Ohio Pennsylvania and Eastern Kentucky. ERCOT Houston also saw prices reach 1 200 $/MWh earlier this week. Still another downward revision to forecast natural gas prices this month keeps pressure on power prices over the outlook. In addition to revisions to the impact of hurricanes Irma and Harvey we also revised our demand forecast based on year to date load trends and revisions to GDP estimates. ERCOT was generally revised upwards on increasing stability in oil and gas production and associated gains to GDP. Most other eastern markets were revised down. PJM and the Southeast were revised down about two percent over the forecast while MISO and SPP were revised down approximately one percent on average. The Northeast was revised down by about 1.7 percent. Mid October is expected to provide the peak of the 2017 fall nuclear refueling season. Generators in PJM and MISO were more likely to begin ramping down in September while those in Florida and ERCOT were more likely to wait it out till October to take advantage of any late season price upside. That said generators in Florida were impacted in September with Turkey Point unit 4 down for 7 days during hurricane Irma and unit 3 down for 5 days. Peak refueling season in the Desert Southwest is also expected the middle of October this year similar to markets in the east. Generators in California are expected to wait a bit longer as generators wait until November to maximize downtime. In terms of new supply we continue to add additional wind and solar in both the Eastern and Western interconnects over the forecast period. And in terms of retirement announcements on October 6 th Luminant announced plans to retire its Monticello power plant in Titus County TX with approximately 1 800 MW of operating capacity on January 4 th 2018 subject to review by ERCOT. Although not included in this analysis Luminant just today also announced it will close the Sandow power plant in Milan County and the Big Brown power plant in Freestone county in early 2018. This would provide additional upside to prices as early as this summer. Still combined with the Monticello retirement ERCOT could conclude that some of this capacity may be needed for reliability and keep selected capacity operating with RMR payments. ERCOT now has 90 days to decide. In the WECC we remove some gas price adders associated with the Aliso Canyon outage. We now only apply adders to non cogen gas fired units in the SCE and SDGE areas as only CAISO dispatchable generators appear to have been hit. As a result California gas generation rises in this update by 3.5 TWh on average or 4.4% displacing gas imports from the Northwest and gas and coal imports from the Desert Southwest.