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Administration backs away from direct coal assistance
In recent days, the Trump administration has declined the opportunity to use executive powers to directly support the coal industry.
$1,100.00
Summary
In recent days, the Trump administration has declined the opportunity to use executive powers to directly support the coal industry. The Administration issued a statement 22 August 2017 declining the request of some coal producers to place a 2-year moratorium on coal plant retirements. On 24 August 2017, the DOE released their "Staff Report on Electricity Markets and Reliability" which some thought would provide a strong endorsement of the value of baseload coal generation to the security and reliability of the grid.
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Commodity market report
China coal short-term outlook September 2017: supply shortage overheats market
A tight supply supported prices and shaky recovery in supply amid strong demand ensures that trend for thermal coal continues in Q4 2017.
$1,350.00
Summary
In September, thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices climbed 15% and 9% month-on-month, respectively. The rises came despite the government pushing for speedier coal production. We have yet seen a material rise in output. Ongoing safety inspections ahead of the 19th National Congress in mid-October are mainly to blame. Although the inspections will eventually wane given the need to ensure enough supply to meet winter heating demand, we don’t expect the thermal coal supply tightness will ease by the end of 2017.
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Commodity market report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2017: Supply concerns prolong the bull run
Premium HCC prices break the US$200/t barrier
$1,350.00
Summary
Widespread mine safety checks in Shanxi have constrained production again in China, pushing domestic coal prices to new highs, with more likely to come. Chinese buyers have actively sought seaborne coal again this month, with hot metal and coke production still very high. Prices for premium hard coking coals have surged through US$200/t, and could go higher in September. International miners are doing what they can to meet demand, but are struggling to meet the need for greater imports into China, the EU, India and Brazil. However, slowing Chinese steel demand, and environmentally-driven production cuts at steel and coke plants from as early as October, should see a softening in coal demand and lower prices towards year end, and into Q1 2018. Average 2018 prices will be lower than this year, but we have increased our price forecast to over US$145/t for next year to account for continued high coal demand in China, and greater constraints on Chinese coal supply.
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Commodity market report
China coal short-term outlook August 2017: regulated domestic output and declining imports tighten market
Tight supply supported prices, but updated 2+26 policy will further impact demand.
$1,350.00
Summary
Entering August, the record-high temperatures felt in July gradually dropped, leading us to reduce our estimation of thermal coal demand. Persistently strong restocking by crude steel producers underpinned metallurgical coal demand. Although the government has allowed new supply to enter the market, we are yet to see a material rise in output. Ongoing safety inspections and coal management tickets are mainly to blame. The Ministry of Environmental Protection also updated the '2+26 policy' and we expect it will impact 65 Mtpa of coal demand.
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