Natural Resources Research and Consulting

We are pleased to release our inaugural global Electric Vehicles Outlook to 2040 – an integrated mobility and natural resources value chain assessment of how the next two decades may play out in advanced transportation. Tightening environmental norms are prioritising transport sector decarbonisation worldwide. The report is Wood Mackenzie’s thesis of electrification of transport in key markets, evolution of battery technologies and implications for power, oils, metals and chemicals demand.

As the trade war continues to play out, copper prices have remained volatile throughout 2019. Three-month copper prices have now lost 12% of their value since trading to a US$6808/t peak in mid-April. The consistent tit-for-tat behaviour between China and the USA has undermined both consumer and market sentiment. A downgraded global demand outlook now points to a finely balanced copper market for 2019. Despite a return to positive mine supply growth in 2020, production will be more than offset by additions to demand as new semis capacity continues to ramp up. From a fundamental perspective, this should be positive for prices. Above average mine supply growth between 2021 and 2023, as output from the 2.7 Mt of new projects hits the market, will overwhelm estimated demand gains. It will only be once stocks start to decline and deficits emerge from 2024 that we expect prices to begin to trend higher to reach our forecast long-term incentive price by 2029.