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  • Commodity market report

    Global exchange rate outlook Q3 2017

    • 20 September 2017

    Wood Mackenzie's latest forecasts on the key exchange rates.

    $700.00

    Summary

    Exchange rates have a critical impact on the cost structure of the resource industry. To improve clarity on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin our commodity analysis Wood Mackenzie publishes regular updates and forecasts on the currencies that impact the markets we look at. Our complete exchange rate dataset is available in excel format from the 'Downloads' section.

    What's included

    • Document

      Exchange Rate Forecast Q3 2017.xls

      XLS 138.50 KB

  • Insight

    How long can Middle East governments withstand low oil prices?

    • 14 October 2016

    Low oil prices have lead to fiscal deficits for the major oil producers in the Middle East. How sustainable are fiscal positions to 2020?

    $950.00

    Summary

    What's included

    • Document

      How long can Middle East governments withstand low oil prices.pdf

      PDF 1.22 MB

  • Commodity market report

    Europe energy prices long-term outlook H1 2017

    • 01 August 2017

    A slower recovery in oil prices is forecast as the gas oversupply intensifies, pressurising coal prices throughout.

    $4,750.00

    Summary

    The outlook for European energy prices is weaker across oil gas and coal. We forecast a slower recovery in oil prices with Brent averaging US$54/bbl in 2017 rising to US$65/bbl in 2020. OPEC production restraints will be offset by strong growth in low cost US tight oil production. Longer term Brent climbs as US tight oil additions slow; higher cost conventional projects are sanctioned; and additional OPEC capacity is required. Although oil demand continues to grow transport demand for oil plateaus from 2030 and petrochemical feedstock accounts for half of the total growth to 2035. The gas oversupply intensifies with piped suppliers all competing for market share against a wave of LNG. There is not enough market space in Europe and with US LNG at the margin European prices are set by the cash cost of US LNG through to 2023. NBP prices fall from US$5.42/mmbtu in 2017 to US$3.70/mmbtu in 2020. Qatar is well positioned to exploit any uplift in prices by developing low cost capacity at its existing LNG facilities forcing other pre FID LNG projects to drive costs down. Consequently we have reduced our pre FID breakeven cost stack with European gas prices post 2023 reflecting the cost of this new supply. European coal prices will trade below Asia reflecting the decline in demand for coal across Europe and limits created by gas switching potential. We forecast prices at ARA at US$75/t in 2017 before declining to US$61/t by 2020. Prices then need to rise as the combination of accumulated demand from Asian markets and retiring coal mines force new coal into production increasing the marginal cost of supply. Power prices across major European markets increased in early 2017 due to concerns over nuclear generation from France and Germany and low hydro reserves in Spain. Once these temporary effects pass power prices will fall back and remain weak for several more years. Low costs in fuels and emissions combined with supply competition from renewables continue to put pressure on fossil fuelled generators. The most efficient gas fired generators out compete sub critical coal fired generators with the tail end of the European coal fleet exposed to cost driven closures in the medium term. Despite the introduction of significant measures to address oversupply we expect emissions prices to remain weak to 2023. Higher prices will then be supported by the tightening balance of the ETS although remain stable in the 45 to 50/tCO2 range.

    What's included

    • Document

      Europe gas demand H1 2017.xls

      XLS 1.35 MB

    • Document

      Europe energy prices H1 2017.xls

      XLS 3.81 MB

    • Document

      Europe energy prices long-term outlook H1 2017

      PDF 3.81 MB

    • Document

      Europe energy prices long-term outlook H1 2017

      ZIP 4.51 MB

    • Document

      Executive summary

      PDF 84.60 KB

    • Document

      Executive summary

      PDF 82.01 KB

    • Document

      Executive summary

      PDF 58.65 KB

    • Document

      Prices

      PDF 175.55 KB

    • Document

      Prices

      PDF 208.88 KB

    • Document

      Prices

      PDF 3.62 MB

    • Document

      Economic outlook

      PDF 66.33 KB

    • Document

      Economic outlook

      PDF 73.09 KB

    • Document

      Economic outlook

      PDF 83.88 KB