What’s next for copper?

The energy transition provides plenty of long-term potential for copper, but with tariffs stretching already strained supply chains and uncertainty likely to affect demand, it may be a bumpy ride to get there. So, what does the future look like for copper markets? 

To make sense of the seismic shifts impacting metals, we held the Wood Mackenzie Future Facing Commodities Forum on 30th April 2025. Fill out the form to download the full slide deck of our copper presentation from the event, or read on for a quick overview of some of the key takeaways. 

Tariffs create risk for near-term demand 

Reciprocal tariffs pose a downside risk to near-term copper demand. Copper prices collapsed in April 2025 in the face of the simmering trade war between the US and China and the threat of a global economic slowdown. With the macroeconomic outlook still uncertain – and likely to remain so – we expect price volatility to remain a feature of the market.   

Protectionism is disrupting supply 

Protectionist policies and attempts to gain control over raw material supply for geopolitical reasons ignore the complexities and current efficiencies of copper market supply chains. For example, while there is plenty of potential for new copper mining projects in the US, refined production will be limited by processing capacity. Currently, the US imports half of its refined consumption requirements; for true supply security, not just mines but also processing plants will need to be built. 

Concentrate market to remain tight 

Increases in integrated smelter capacity is decreasing the amount of copper concentrate available the market. With demand from smelters vastly exceeding supply treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for spot copper concentrate have gone negative in recent months. We expect the market to remain tight, with lower utilisation rates and low TC/RCs until the concentrate requirement is reduced. 

The energy transition boosts long-term demand 

Long-term copper demand will be supported by the growth in electric vehicle (EV) use and the expansion of electrical grids to cope with demand. There will be divergence in demand across regions, with developing economies such as India and other ASEAN countries significantly increasing consumption. 

New projects are needed to meet future demand 

The call on the mining industry to meet future demand is significant. To meet increasing refined copper demand over the next decade we estimate that 900 ktpa of projects will need to be sanctioned each year. Current copper-producing countries will continue to deliver production, but there is potential for additional production from new jurisdictions and investment sources. 

Learn more 

Don’t forget to fill in the form at the top of the page to receive your complimentary copy of the slide deck on the outlook for copper from our Future Facing Commodities event.