Argentina to peak at 180 Mmcd, becoming regional gas supplier and LNG exporter, says Wood Mackenzie

Argentina is strengthening its position as the next major regional gas supplier while eyeing a prominent role in the global LNG market. Backed by significant unconventional gas reserves, the country’s production could peak 180 million cubic feet per day (Mmcd) by 2040 under a base-case scenario, with the potential to reach as high as 270 Mmcd if the country successfully develops all its planned LNG export projects, according to Wood Mackenzie's latest “Argentina gas and power market outlook”. 

“With Bolivian exports set to cease by the end of this decade, Argentina is strategically positioned to become the leading regional supplier,” said Javier Toro, Senior Research Manager at Wood Mackenzie. “At the same time, Argentina has a real opportunity to establish itself as a credible LNG exporter on the world stage.” 

According to the “Argentina gas and power market outlook” report from Wood Mackenzie, Flagship fields such as Fortín de Piedra, Aguada Pichana Este and Oeste will be central to this growth, supported by additional volumes from Sierra Chata and El Mangrullo to expand export opportunities. 

Argentina is already interconnected via pipelines with Chile, Uruguay, and Bolivia. The recent reversal of the northern pipeline allowed Argentina to deliver gas to Brazil through existing Bolivian infrastructure. Looking ahead, direct exports could be possible by extending a connection from Uruguaiana to Porto Alegre and into Brazil’s integrated transport system. 

On the LNG front, Argentina has taken final investment decision (FID) on a floating liquefaction facility with a projected capacity of up to 2.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). The country is also evaluating an additional 3.5 Mtpa unit under the Southern Energy consortium (Pan American Energy, Pampa, Harbour Energy, YPF, and Golar). In parallel, YPF has signed MoUs with Shell for a 10 Mtpa project and with ENI for a 12 Mtpa facility. If all these projects proceed, Argentina could be exporting up to 28 Mtpa of LNG by 2035. 

According to Toro, “Argentina’s export potential is impressive, but delivering on it will require over USD 5 billion in infrastructure investments and potentially another 5 billion USD to fully develop its LNG exports objectives, largely to expand pipeline capacity.” 

Key challenges remain 

Despite these opportunities, Argentina must overcome significant hurdles to fully develop its export ambitions. As a regional pipeline supplier, the country will need to address infrastructure bottlenecks by investing in transport capacity. Moreover, competitive pricing will be critical to ensure export viability while effectively managing seasonal fluctuations in available volumes. Additionally, Argentina will need to actively stimulate new markets to displace existing fossil fuels, while simultaneously ensuring a predictable and stable regulatory framework to attract long-term private capital investment. 

For LNG development, Argentina needs dedicated pipelines to liquefaction facilities and scaled upstream production capacity. “Regulatory stability and investor guarantees through the RIGI framework will be vital to secure financing,” Toro added. “Argentina will also need to compete with lower-cost global LNG supplies, which require a consistent commercial strategy.” 

“The key questions that Wood Mackenzie dives deeper into are whether these investments will be enough to meet peak winter demand while securing firm export volumes and at what price levels these exports will become truly viable” said Toro.