South America onshore wind growth to moderate by 2034, Wood Mackenzie finds

Onshore wind capacity in South America will hit 83 gigawatts (GW) by 2034 with a 6.5% annual growth rate, a report from Wood Mackenzie finds. Top three markets account for 84% of the 39 GW regional outlook. 

According to the report “South America onshore wind power outlook”, large commercial and industrial customers are boosting wind growth through corporate PPAs in mature markets, while less developed markets still rely on government tenders. However, transmission constraints pose major challenges to renewables integration, facing rising curtailment issues. Brazil is an example of this matter. 

“Power oversupply is complicating sustained development in Brazil and Chile, following the recent renewables boom” said Kárys Prado, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Overall, headwinds from grid restrictions and fierce solar competition contribute to a slowdown in the coming years,” she added. “Beyond short term, other markets attract increasing investor attention as permitting bottlenecks ease, though growth will remain constrained by limited demand and insufficient infrastructure.” 

Brazil 

Free market expansion will continue to drive wind additions in the region’s largest market, but the outlook shows dampened growth as the grid-subsidized renewables rush fades. Although long-term potential exists from demand recovery, near-term view remains bearish due to systemic imbalances and grid constraints. On the flip side, while decoupling risks harm renewables in general, wind could still capture higher prices upon tailored PPA modulation to help overcome solar utility competition. 

Chile 

Chile's decarbonization efforts have rapidly transitioned the power market towards renewables, with momentum suggesting its 2030 target will be achieved ahead of schedule. However, the overbuild has outpaced load and grid upgrades, challenging medium-term development. Congestion pressures are expected to intensify before easing as energy storage and transmission infrastructure mature in the following decade. 

Argentina 

Despite macroeconomic challenges, wind capacity will grow steadily in Argentina. The MATER scheme is driving expansion by supporting commercial and industrial demand through corporate PPAs with favorable contracting conditions. Still, currency devaluation is hindering investment in critical grid infrastructure.  

Colombia 

Colombia's wind potential has yet to be unlocked, with a 10-year forecast primarily driven by tender-backed projects from 2019 rounds. Development faces systemic infrastructure and regulatory hurdles, particularly in La Guajira, where awarded capacity remains largely unbuilt. The outlook indicates wind growth will pick up after 2027 as permitting and grid issues are gradually resolved. 

Peru 

Tenders have stalled in Peru over the past decade amid several government changes, shifting capacity additions to mainly rely on the free market. The country is behind its non-hydro renewable goals, weakened by inconsistent policymaking. Wind finds success in bilateral agreements, though, as price predictability compared to tariff spikes attracts large offtakers. 

 “Regional wind prospects will slowly improve in the long term as demand emerges, but growth is unlikely to match the rapid expansion seen in recent years”, said Prado. Amid transmission constraints and policy uncertainties, South America's wind sector faces a challenging transition period before progressive recovery. “The region's ability to address infrastructure bottlenecks and maintain stable regulatory frameworks will be crucial for realising its full wind energy potential,” Prado concluded.