This month’s Horizons explores how new energy realities are delaying the global retreat from coal, challenging long-held assumptions about its decline and complicating the path to net zero.
Geopolitical instability, surging electricity demand, and underdeveloped alternatives are keeping coal firmly in the power mix - despite global efforts to decarbonise. While Wood Mackenzie’s base-case forecast still sees global coal demand peaking in 2026, a new high coal demand scenario suggests that peak could slip to 2030, with sustained coal use far beyond that.
Asia, home to 78% of today’s coal consumption, holds the future of coal in its hands. A young coal fleet, strategic energy security concerns, and affordability make coal an attractive option across many fast-growing economies - particularly India, Indonesia, Vietnam and China. Meanwhile, new coal technologies, including flexible plant operations and carbon capture, could make coal more compatible with renewables-dominated grids.
This month's Horizons report, Staying power: How new energy realities risk extending coal's sunset, presents the implications of a higher-for-longer coal outlook on power markets, emissions, and clean energy investment. We assess the macro forces and local market dynamics shaping the future of coal, and the critical role policy support will play in shifting the trajectory.
Key themes include:
-
Peak coal slips to 2030? In our high coal demand case, coal generation is 32% higher on average through 2050 than in our base case, with renewables and gas capacity falling accordingly.
-
Energy security over emissions. Governments prioritise domestic coal to shield themselves from volatile global energy markets and rising LNG import costs.
-
Power demand outpaces clean supply. Electrification, AI and data centres are driving huge demand, but zero-carbon options can’t yet keep up—forcing governments to extend the life of coal assets.
-
Technology as lifeline. Upgrades enabling coal flexibility, along with early-stage carbon capture and co-firing with ammonia and hydrogen, could prolong coal’s role—if supported by policy and investment.
Read the full report now to understand how coal’s resilience could reshape global power markets. Then, join us for Horizons Live, where our expert panel will debate the outlook, the risks, and the policy levers that could still bring forward the end of coal - and answer your questions in a live Q&A.
Register now via the form at the top of the page.
You can also browse the Horizons archive and sign up to the Inside Track newsletter to ensure you don't miss out on future editions.