At the crossroads: a reality check on trends in copper supply and demand
Global electrification hinges on copper - but as demand from EVs, renewables and AI soars, supply constraints and geopolitical risks threaten to reshape the market for decades to come
2 minute read
Without copper, the backbone of electrification, the world cannot decarbonise. The spread of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables, as well as grid upgrades, are driving demand growth that is likely to persist for the rest of the century. The question is how the world can secure sufficient supply to meet this burgeoning demand.
In a recent presentation at the London Metals Exchange Forum 2025, Wood Mackenzie analysts discussed the growing gap between copper supply and demand, and the outlook for the copper market.
Fill in the form to download a redacted deck of charts that accompanied the presentation and read on for a brief introduction.
Soaring demand
As megatrends collide with fundamental supply-demand imbalances, new price floors are likely to be established that redefine the industry's economics for years to come. Artificial intelligence (AI) and the data centres required to power it, while a small demand driver today, have the potential to create further asymmetric additions to demand.
In addition to the energy transition and persistent demand from China, population growth, urbanisation and industrial migration in the rest of the world, predominantly Southeast Asia and India, are set to drive demand growth over the coming decade.
Fill in the form to see how we break down the global demand drivers to 2035 and to compare copper prices with those of other in-demand metals.
A supply crunch
Supply has been unable to keep up with demand due to constraints along the supply chain, not just in mining, but in refining and smelting and the manufacture of semi-finished products, currently dominated by China.
It will take 7.8 Mt of new copper supply by 2035 to plug the emerging supply-demand gap, according to our base-case scenario. Recycling and scrap will help, but won’t be sufficient to plug the deficit.
The Trump administration’s tariffs, meanwhile, have shown copper’s exposure to trade tensions, not just market cycles. The tariffs have not only raised domestic prices and caused a shift in global trade flows, but are deterring long-term copper investment.
Fill in the form to see the composition of the supply-demand gap through to 2035.
Market disruption and potential solutions
Mine disruptions have been pushing 6% over the past three years, highlighting the rise in operational risk to supply. To fill the gap, copper growth is shifting west to east, from Chile to the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Asia. New frontiers are opening up, with China, Russia and other Asian countries dominating new mine supply.
Fill in the form for a detailed look at the geographical shift in supply, as well as our estimates of the possible and probable new supply frontiers.
The market outlook
Power, politics and project ramp-up are the key risks to the supply outlook.
Fill in the form to see a map of potential supply declines and additions to our base case and the potential risks associated with each region.
About Lens Metals & Mining
Lens Metals & Mining provides an integrated view of the global copper supply chain - from mine to market - helping you track how structural shifts in demand, supply constraints, and geopolitical developments could shape pricing and investment decisions over the coming decades. The platform connects detailed asset-level data across mines, smelters, and refineries with dynamic market forecasts and scenario modelling, offering a complete picture of copper’s role in the energy transition. Find out more about Lens Metals & Mining.