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Opinion

US EV charging infrastructure shows resilience amid policy headwinds

The Q2 2025 US public charging network grew 5% despite policy rollbacks and rising equipment costs, while autonomous vehicles and commercial fleets emerged as new demand drivers

3 minute read

Emil Koenig

Senior Research Analyst, Power & Renewables

Aamir works with international and national oil companies to improve financial, commercial and operational performance.

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The second quarter of 2025 delivered a mixed bag of developments for the US electric vehicle charging infrastructure market, with steady network growth continuing despite significant policy shifts that threaten to reshape the industry landscape. 

Our latest EV Charging Infrastructure Monitor reveals a market in transition, where established growth patterns persist even as new regulatory and economic challenges emerge.

Steady growth continues despite headwinds 

The US public charging network maintained its momentum with a solid 5% growth rate in Q2 2025, matching the previous quarter's performance. This consistency demonstrates the market's underlying resilience, though the pace has moderated slightly compared to the same period in 2024. The growth was driven by continued expansion across both Level 2 and DC fast charging (DCFC) segments, with established players maintaining their dominance in network deployments. 

ChargePoint emerged as the clear leader in Level 2 expansion, capturing an impressive 50% of all capacity growth during the quarter. The company's aggressive deployment strategy helped drive the stable 5% growth in public L2 infrastructure, with the top 10 charging networks accounting for nearly 80% of new port installations. This concentration suggests the market is maturing around established players with proven operational capabilities. 

The DCFC segment showed particular strength, with Tesla Supercharger achieving its second-highest quarterly deployment ever. This rebound comes after several quarters of slower growth.

Policy shifts create new challenges 

Perhaps the most significant development in the last quarter is the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB), which signals a dramatic policy shift away from federal EV subsidies. The legislation ends EV purchase tax credits seven years early and removes the IRA 30C tax credit for charging infrastructure by June 2026. These changes are projected to reduce 2030 EV sales share by 3% versus our prior forecast, potentially slowing the demand growth that has been driving charging infrastructure expansion. 

The policy changes extend beyond vehicle incentives to impact infrastructure costs directly. Wood Mackenzie's analysis suggests that US tariff policies will increase EVSE equipment costs by approximately 9% in their base case scenario, with DCFC and Level 2 capital expenditures facing similar impacts. These cost increases come at a critical time when the industry is working to achieve economies of scale and improve project economics.

Autonomous vehicles drive new demand patterns 

An emerging bright spot in the market comes from autonomous vehicle fleets, which are gradually expanding across American cities. Five cities now host autonomous EV fleets serving rideshare demand, with Waymo leading the charge with 1,500 vehicles and plans to add 2,000 more over the next 18 months.  

The autonomous vehicle segment reveals interesting charging patterns and preferences. Current operators favor single-power-level charging strategies, though Wood Mackenzie's modeling suggests that hybrid approaches combining Level 2 and DCFC could offer operational benefits and cost savings both for AEV operators and the grid.

Commercial vehicle electrification accelerates 

Looking beyond passenger vehicles, the report identifies significant momentum building in medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle electrification. This segment is expected to grow at a 4% compound annual growth rate over the next decade, driven by favorable cost economics and the advantages of Level 2 overnight charging for fleet operations. 

Medium-duty vehicles are positioned to lead this transition, with projections showing they could reach 22% of total stock by 2035. The geographic concentration of this demand is notable, with 50% of energy demand expected to concentrate in just 10 states by 2035, primarily in areas where electricity offers the highest cost advantage versus diesel.

Market implications and outlook 

The Q2 2025 results paint a picture of a charging infrastructure market that continues to expand despite facing new headwinds. While policy changes and cost pressures present challenges, emerging demand sources like autonomous vehicles and commercial fleets offer new growth opportunities. The market's ability to maintain steady growth rates suggests underlying fundamentals remain strong, even as the regulatory environment becomes less supportive. 

For industry stakeholders, the report highlights the importance of operational efficiency and strategic positioning as the market matures. With equipment costs rising and subsidies declining, successful players will need to focus on optimising their deployment strategies and capturing high-value market segments.

Learn more 

The full Wood Mackenzie EV Charging Infrastructure Monitor provides detailed analysis of these trends, including comprehensive data on regional deployment patterns, equipment pricing dynamics, and forward-looking scenarios for market development across all charging segments.