Permian basin gas outlook: Eiger Express FID adds to outbound build momentum

In August 2025, WhiteWater and its Matterhorn JV partners announced a positive final investment decision (FID) on the Eiger Express pipeline, a major 2.5 bcfd natural gas project set to run from the Permian basin to the Katy area, with an expected in-service date in mid-2028. This announcement adds to growing momentum, with a further 3.9 bcfd of new capacity heading north and west out of the basin also announced in recent months.

The Eiger Express comes at a critical time for the Permian. Softer oil price expectations and a ~17% year-on-year drop in rig counts are raising questions about the pace of future associated gas supply and outbound flows. At the same time, local factors such as data centre build-outs and rising power demand are adding new layers of complexity to the regional balance.

Our view

Despite near-term uncertainty, low-cost Permian gas supply remains essential in keeping a lid on rising Henry Hub prices. As LNG export demand grows and power demand expands domestically, the Permian is expected to play a central role. We forecast an additional 3.6 bcfd of gas supply from the basin by 2027 compared with 2024 levels.

While soft oil prices in 2026 could lead to slower drilling activity, production from gassier areas of the Delaware basin could begin to recover in 2027. This timing would align with new egress capacity coming online, which could help narrow the Waha basis.

Looking further out, current project timelines and production trends point to the potential for excess takeaway capacity in the early 2030s. This could be further amplified if proposals such as Transwestern’s Desert Southwest expansion proceed with upsized volumes. Even so, gradual growth in associated gas should begin to tighten capacity again by the middle of the next decade.

Bottom line

The Eiger Express FID adds to the wave of outbound build from the Permian basin. While short-term supply growth may slow, long-term fundamentals continue to support the basin’s critical role in balancing both domestic and global gas markets.

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