H1 US wind installations down 15% YOY, activity spike projected for H2

The Q2 U.S. wind market installed 593 megawatts (MW), down 60% compared to Q2 2024. But installations through the first nine months of 2025 are projected to outpace 2024, reaching a total of 3.8 gigawatts (GW), according to the U.S. Wind Energy Monitor report released today by Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP).

Despite the slowdown in Q2, activity is projected to pick up, with 51% of forecasted capacity to come online in Q4, rounding out the annual 2025 total to 7.7 GW.

Onshore activity

The post-OBBBA US onshore wind market outlook increased by 3.6% (2.4 GW) for onshore wind new builds quarter-on-quarter, as developers focus on bringing projects to commercial operation before the tax credit expiration deadline.

“We are seeing this uptick in the near term because many projects are shovel-ready or under construction, fully permitted and with a turbine order in place,” said Leila Garcia da Fonseca, director of research at Wood Mackenzie. “However, we will face uncertainty later in this decade due to tariff investigations and permitting challenges.”

Turbine order activity has been subdued in the first half of 2025 due to policy uncertainty. While Treasury guidance confirming tax credit eligibility rules provided a 7% boost to near-term installations, new tariff investigations threaten the supply chain supporting two-thirds of wind turbine components. The Department of Commerce's national security probe could inflate one-third of total project costs, creating downside risk for late-decade installations.

"We're seeing policy whiplash," said Garcia da Fonseca. "Treasury guidance helps the advanced development pipeline, but tariff investigations and permitting hurdles are creating uncertainty beyond 2027."

Western states will lead activity with 31% installations through 2029, followed by the Midwest. The Midwest will lead installations in 2027 and 2028. Illinois will surpass Texas in 2027 with over 1.8 GW of new capacity.

Offshore activity

Wood Mackenzie is projecting a total of 5.9 GW of offshore wind capacity to come online by 2029, with 2026 and 2027 accounting for the bulk of activity.

“Recent federal stop-work orders and regulatory uncertainty have disrupted offshore wind sector, weakening already fragile offtake opportunities and exposing the high investment risk in U.S. offshore wind development,” said Garcia da Fonseca. “However, our five-year outlook remains unchanged and 70% of forecasted capacity is already under construction.”

Market spike coming in 2027

Wood Mackenzie forecasts average annual installations of 9.1 GW over the next five years across onshore, offshore, and repowering segments. By the end of 2029, approximately 46 GW of wind power capacity is expected to be installed, comprising nearly 35.5 GW from new onshore greenfield projects, 6 GW from offshore development and 4.5 GW from repowering. Cumulative capacity should reach 196.5 GW.

Shovel-ready projects will drive a connection spike in 2027, when installations will peak at 12.3 GW.

“Despite political headwinds, wind projects are demonstrating market resilience, said Garcia da Fonseca. “Wind continues to secure ISAs in 2025 despite anti-wind rhetoric. The technology maintains meaningful market presence even as solar and storage lead interconnection activity, with leadership concentrated in SPP and ERCOT.​”

Discover more in the complimentary Executive Summary.