US utility large load commitments reach 160 GW amid unprecedented PJM demand surge

US utility large load commitments have reached over 160 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to 22% of 2024 US peak load, according to the analysis “Up, up and away” by Wood Mackenzie that incorporates the latest findings from PJM's Load Adjustment Request (LAR) process.  

Building on previous research “No turning back, an analysis of utility large load pipelines,” which cited large load commitments at 116 GW, the new study reveals that PJM utilities collectively forecast 55 GW of large load growth by 2030 and 100 GW by 2037, driven primarily by data center development, including crypto mines. The analysis of capacity commitments versus available generation reveals a critical future supply-demand imbalance that poses significant risks to PJM’s electrical grid. 

"Our main finding shows PJM utilities have committed to serve twice as much new large load demand as there is new power generation being planned to support it, which could lead to power shortages and higher bills in the Mid-Atlantic," said Ben Hertz-Shargel, Global Head of Grid Edge at Wood Mackenzie. 

The study also identifies critical planning challenges. Utility forecasting methodologies reveal inconsistencies, including varying assumptions in the ratio between utility demand and contracted capacity, as well as large load ramp rates. This creates uncertainty regarding where and when large loads will materialize, challenging grid capacity and transmission planning. 

While Dominion is well-known as the utility with the greatest data center load, it is notably not among the four operating companies forecasting over 11 GW of large load growth by 2040. Nevertheless, Virginia emerges as a critical growth hub, with three of the top six utilities collectively forecasting 30 GW of new large load in the state. Despite this concentration, two-thirds of total demand is expected across the Dominion, AEP and PPL zones. 

“The data reveals a dramatic shift in growth patterns, with 2030 serving as a critical inflection point for large load expansion," said Hertz-Shargel. "Utilities expect that annual gigawatt additions will transition from a 23% compound annual growth rate before 2030 to negative 22% thereafter, highlighting the potential for this unprecedented demand surge to be front-loaded." 

Wood Mackenzie's analysis underlines that without immediate action to address looming generation capacity shortfalls and standardise forecasting methodologies, the Mid-Atlantic region faces significant risks to grid reliability and affordability.