US wind greenfield outlook lifts 5% as developers target more than 53 GW of overall wind additions through 2030

The US wind industry is on track to connect more than 53 gigawatts (GW) of capacity through 2030, as a surge in construction activity prompts Wood Mackenzie to raise its five-year greenfield outlook by 5% quarter-on-quarter, according to the US Wind Energy Monitor Q2 2026 report released today by Wood Mackenzie. 

Data-centre demand drives corporate PPA surge 

Corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) surged year-on-year in Q1 2026, signalling steady demand. The 1.9 GW portfolio deal between Google and Xcel Energy reflects the continuing presence of data-centre-related offtake in the market. Utility procurement pulled back over the same period, tempering the overall gain. Large technology companies are turning to wind power as an additional energy source to meet their growing needs. 

"The 4% upgrade reflects a market in execution mode," said Diego Espinosa, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "Developers are concentrating resources on projects that can reach commercial operation before the tax credit window closes, and the pipeline is responding accordingly." 

Onshore activity 

Tight development timelines continue to favour project execution over new greenfield activity. Construction starts increased 8% from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026, as developers raced to meet the July 2026 safe harbour milestone. Safe harbour activity remains a key driver of market momentum, with post-FID projects accounting for 58% of greenfield capacity additions through 2028, reinforcing confidence in the near-term pipeline. In parallel, firm turbine order intake reached 1.1 GW in Q1 2026—five times the volume recorded a year earlier—demonstrating continued capital deployment toward safe harbour-qualified projects. New-build additions are expected to peak in 2028, as permitting delays and interconnection constraints push a growing share of early-stage developments toward the latter part of the decade. 

 Offshore activity 

Offshore wind additions are forecast to peak in 2027 as the remaining 5.2 GW under construction approaches completion. The near-term outlook, however, masks deeper turbulence in the broader offshore pipeline. Nine auctions collapsed in H1 2026, pulling more than 2,900 km² of offshore leases into termination settlements. Proceeds from a $2.7 billion federal lease buyout are anticipated to be redeployed into conventional energy sources, geothermal projects, and fossil fuels by developers. 

The road beyond 2030 

With 81 GW of wind capacity reaching 15 years of age by 2035, a repowering opportunity remains viable. At least 45% of the three-year repowering forecast is underway, and established precedents are helping developers cut time and cost in high-quality resource areas. 

"Wind's story does not end in 2030 with the sunset of tax credits — it changes," said Kárys Prado, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "The challenge for developers is to build a new investment logic that reduces reliance on tax equity, while capturing the upside that comes from tight supply meeting strong demand."