In our latest Horizons: Trading Cases – Tariff Scenarios for Taxing Times, we examine how recent US tariff policies are reshaping global markets, with particularly strong impacts on the oil, gas and power sectors. These changes are not just policy adjustments. They are driving fundamental shifts in trade flows, project costs and investment strategies across the energy landscape.

Below is a breakdown of how each sector is being affected, and what traders and strategists should be watching.

Oil: rising costs and softening demand

Slower global economic growth linked to trade friction is weakening oil demand forecasts, especially in emerging markets. Lower oil demand growth impacts US Lower 48 supplies and the oil price outlook. The refining sector is hit harder.

Gas and LNG: risk of oversupply increases 

Trade tensions are introducing significant risks to future LNG demand growth at a time when a substantial wave of new LNG supply is set to come online in the coming years, heightening the risk of a medium-term oversupply. Tariff-related cost increases are complicating the economics of new developments in the United States. Meanwhile, LNG buyers in Europe and Asia are reassessing the commercial viability of new U.S. LNG contracts, as domestic policy pressures them to commit to long-term agreements in support of balancing trade with the U.S.

Power and renewables: equipment costs and policy uncertainty

The power sector, especially renewables, is feeling the impact of disrupted supply chains. Tariffs on solar panels, wind turbines, transformers and battery components are raising the cost of new project development. This is affecting everything from utility-scale solar farms to grid-scale storage deployments. In parallel, policy uncertainty is causing delays in investment decisions, even as long-term demand for clean energy remains strong.

Planning for multiple outcomes

With so much uncertainty around trade policy and its global knock-on effects, energy market participants must plan for multiple scenarios. Future pathways could include constrained supply and high prices, or prolonged demand weakness and low investment. Preparing for divergence is now a strategic imperative.

Get the full report

To access detailed projections and sector-specific analysis for oil, gas and power, fill in the form to download the complete Horizons report.