This month’s Horizons Live will explore three distinct scenarios for the end of the Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – and the implications for the global economy and energy landscape.
A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has eased immediate escalation risk in the Middle East, but a durable peace remains elusive. With the Strait of Hormuz still at risk of prolonged closure, the world’s most critical energy shipping chokepoint has become the single most important uncertainty shaping global supply, demand and pricing.
Almost 12 million b/d of Gulf crude flows are currently disrupted, alongside more than 80 Mtpa of LNG supply, around 20% of global LNG trade. The longer this disruption persists, the more severe the implications for inventories, prices, demand destruction and broader macroeconomic stability.
In response, in this month's Horizons report, we set three distinct scenarios – Quick Peace, Summer Settlement and Extended Disruption – each mapping different timelines for reopening the Strait and the resulting impacts across oil, gas, LNG and the global economy.
Horizons Live will bring together our experts to unpack the scenario outcomes and answer your questions.
Key themes include:
- Three scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz: how Quick Peace, Summer Settlement and Extended Disruption reshape timelines for recovery and global market balance
- Oil market implications: from rapid price normalisation under reopening scenarios to extreme inventory depletion and potential price spikes in a prolonged closure
- Global LNG and gas impacts: supply losses, project delays and the risk of structural market reshaping depending on conflict duration
- Macroeconomic fallout: how energy price shocks transmit into recession risk, regional divergence and long-term demand destruction
- Energy security and geopolitics: what sustained disruption means for importing economies, diversification strategies and future system resilience
Join us live as our expert panel breaks down the scenarios, tests the assumptions behind each pathway and explores what a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could mean for global energy markets and economic stability.
Our panel:
- Gavin Thompson, Vice Chairman, Energy – Europe, Middle East & Africa
- Alan Gelder, SVP Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets
- Peter Martin, Head of Economics
- Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President, Gas and LNG Research
Register now to join the conversation and put your questions to our experts as they explore how the Strait of Hormuz crisis could reshape global energy markets for years to come.
Register now to join the conversation and put your questions to our experts as they explore how the Middle East conflict could reshape global energy markets for years to come.