Refinery Supply Model

An accelerating energy transition creates significant uncertainty around future refined product demand and clouds the picture for future regional product balances, refining margins, crude differentials, crude and product trade, and ultimately refining asset competitiveness.  

To gain clarity, sophisticated modelling capabilities and granular datasets are required to account for the thousands of variables driving the global downstream environment. 

The Refinery Supply Model provides a quantitative approach to mitigate uncertainty and plan   future downstream investments and strategy. 

• Cloud based, linear optimisation model using a cost minimisation approach 
• Base case dataset-fully editable inputs including granular regional supply by quality and detailed regional product demand, refinery capacity details, trade routes and costs 

• Coverage of 500 refineries and 300 North American pipeline and terminal connections 
• A granular view of midstream asset level utilisation and positioning 
• Ability to simulate midstream investments, capacity additions or closures 
• Refineries modelled to exact unit capacities  

• Assess regional impacts and benchmark individual refinery competitiveness under a range of market scenarios 
• Understand impact of investments on regional prices, margins and utilisation  
• Identify where optimal investments are needed to meet growing global product demand 
• Assess the impact of regional supply and demand changes on trade flows and differentials 

• Examine evolving trade patterns and regional product balances under various demand scenarios 
• Understand North American midstream dynamics and impacts of investments on crude flows