Supporting U.S. decarbonization through low-carbon hydrogen deployment

Deploying low-carbon hydrogen at scale is critical to meeting the United States' decarbonization goals—particularly in sectors that are hard to electrify or abate. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap has set ambitious targets:

• 10 million metric tons per annum (mmtpa) by 2030
• 20 mmtpa by 2040
• 50 mmtpa by 2050

These milestones are part of a broader strategy to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 10% by mid-century. Meeting these goals requires rapidly scaling the U.S. low-carbon hydrogen market from under 1 mmtpa in 2024 to five times the size of today’s carbon-intensive hydrogen market within just 25 years.

In response to this challenge, the U.S. Secretary of Energy commissioned the National Petroleum Council (NPC) to conduct a comprehensive study on the large-scale deployment of low-carbon intensity (LCI) hydrogen to support decarbonization across the energy and industrial sectors.

To conduct this landmark study, the NPC brought together over 200 experts from more than 100 organizations—including Wood Mackenzie, recognized for its extensive commercial and market expertise in low-carbon hydrogen.

Throughout this multi-year initiative, Melany Vargas, Head of Hydrogen Consulting at Wood Mackenzie, volunteered as a key leader. She collaborated closely with the NPC and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiative (MITEI) to drive the study’s modeling efforts.

Wood Mackenzie also led the task group responsible for the Integrated Supply Chain Economics and Carbon Intensity chapter. This involved close engagement with MITEI and industry stakeholders to establish core input assumptions for technoeconomic modeling. The team delivered detailed insights on:

• The emissions reduction potential and economic value of low-carbon hydrogen as part of the net-zero toolkit
• Market sizing and investment needs under two scenarios: Stated Policies and Announced Pledges
• Regional advantages for supply, demand, infrastructure, and policy development
• Pathways for supply chain growth and hydrogen commercialization, including pipelines and storage
• Adoption costs and carbon abatement potential across key sectors—and the economic gap to fuel parity

This analysis formed a foundational framework for understanding hydrogen’s role in the U.S. decarbonization pathway, highlighting the technical, economic, and policy barriers to scale.

The final deliverable, a comprehensive report titled "Harnessing Hydrogen: A Key Element of the U.S. Energy Future", outlined 23 actionable recommendations for Secretary Granholm and the Department of Energy. These findings provide a clear, data-driven path toward achieving the hydrogen scale-up needed to meet U.S. net-zero objectives.