The Middle East conflict: fundamental power market analysis for Germany

Following disruptions to LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz, gas markets reacted sharply - with TTF prices soaring above oil parity. But what does all of this mean for German power markets?

Using Wood Mackenzie's EPSI power-dispatch platform, our Power Trading Analytics team modeled four gas price scenarios to reveal:

• Which hours face the steepest price impacts (hint: it's not when you might expect)
• How within-day price spreads evolve as gas costs escalate by 10%, 15%, 20%, or 30%
• When gas-to-coal switching hits diminishing returns - and what that means for trading strategies
• Why fundamental models outperform machine learning during unique geopolitical events

During times of extreme volatility, historical patterns fail. Fundamental modeling reveals the opportunities others miss.

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Fill out the form on this page to access our complete scenario analysis with detailed hourly price impacts and generation switching dynamics for Germany for March & April 2026.