North America natural gas summer market outlook – 2025

Gas production in North America is bouncing back after the lows of 2024 but signs indicate this might not continue throughout 2025. Wood Mackenzie looks at where production might be heading this summer. 

Fill in the form to watch the complete North American gas summer outlook 2025 webinar including Q&As from the attendees, and to download the presentation deck.  

A regional round up 

After the lows of last year where production dropped below  100.0 bcfd, high winter gas prices has ramped up winter production to over 105.0 bcfd  since February. We have also seen a 13% increase in rigsin the  Haynesville, for example, up from 27 rigs to 37 rigs. 

Regionally, in the northeast, rigs are down around 33% from a year ago, so we are expecting a slight decline in production later in 2025. It is likely any decline will be limited to this region. In North Louisiana, there is probably 15-20 TILs to come online which will boost production over the next couple of months. However, there is some upside risk to this region because the region is forecasted at 30% of production - a majority growth. 

In the Permian region we expect growth despite the fact that approximately 20 rigs will come off by the end of the year. The growth will be mostly down to GORs expansion and growth.   

Heading into 2025, we expect to see growth of around 4 BFC per day compared to last summer’s output, especially in regions supporting LNG expansion. 

 A focus on Plaquemines 

The first nine blocks at Plaquemines LNG ramped up quickly before a brief pause in March for reliability testing. Commissioning resumed in late March with blocks 10 and 11 receiving hazardous liquids and gas authorisation.  

The time between authorisations for blocks is shortening and block 13 is now ahead of block 12 in the commissioning progress. Block 13 has received nitrogen testing approval and may receive hazardous fluids authorisation as early as mid-May.  

All 18 blocks were installed by the end of March and it is possible that some blocks could begin commissioning concurrently. Key risks include timing of lender-driven reliability tests, but if blocks continue to ramp up, one to two blocks could begin commissioning per month throughout May and June. 

Mexican exports  

Mexico exports have continued to grow year over year. Last year, we had a bullish outlook on exports for Mexico and this trend is expected to continue through 2025. 

The two main drivers for this are a decline in Mexico’s domestic production and a continued increase in their power load. Additionally, Mexico has changed from being an LNG importer to an exporter via the Altamira facility.  

These LNG exports have ramped up but are not expected to grow much further in the near term. While this continues, we forecast seeing increases not only this summer but into 2026 also. 

 Changing power mix and summer storage 

The full picture for lower 48 demand needs to be looked at within the changing power generation mix. Renewables, especially solar, are rapidly expanding with solar generation capacity expected to grow 34.5% this summer from 2024. This means coal capacity is declining and gas-fired capacity has flattened. This is expected to remain flat through 2025. 

Although, the total load for the lower 48 continues to grow at a steady rate, temperature sensitivity is impacting power demand in the US.  

Canadian imports are still driven entirely by US demand so when gas consumption rises in the US so do Canadian imports. Regardless of external behaviours, such as the announcement of tariffs, imports will continue to fluctuate with consumption.  

Going into summer we are starting just below the five year average of storage inventories. This is because this winter saw larger LNG storage withdrawals compared to the past two winters despite typical weather for the season. 

The supply demand balance is expected to be looser this summer than last year by about 1.5 BCF/day. The current forecast for end-of-summer storage is to reach 3.77 BCF, which is below both the five-year average and last year’s summer exit level.  

To get detailed forecasting and more information on how weather, tariffs and exports will impact the market, fill in the form at the top to watch the full North American Natural Gas Summer Outlook 2025 webinar and to download the complete presentation deck.