The latest developments in global upstream

Amid geopolitical tensions, shifts in energy and environmental priorities, and a host of supply and demand issues, 2025 is proving very much a mixed bag for the global upstream industry. 

Two of the topics covered in our latest Global Upstream Update speak directly to those competing priorities: OPEC+ unwinding its voluntary supply curtailments and the Majors’ struggle to maintain emissions reductions momentum.  

We also undertook a 20-year lookback at exploration value creation and reviewed some structural shifts to unlock value from Lower 48 gas assets. In the Middle East section, we delved into ADNOC’s marginal fields and expansion at Qatar’s giant North Field.  

Read on for a taster of our update and fill in the form at the top of the page to receive a complimentary copy of our full report. 

Oil Majors struggle to keep a lid on emissions 

In 2024, the Majors reported an increase in upstream scope 1 and 2 emissions, reversing the prevailing trend. The rise in absolute operated emissions stemmed from a 4% production increase, and offsetting this, more gas projects and tight oil helped lower overall intensity.  

Of the Majors, only Eni and Equinor reported a continued reduction in emissions. Progress slowed in many areas, including methane emissions.  

Our take: big, easy decarbonisation wins are in the past, making it harder to offset rising output. 

OPEC+ unwinds first tranche of voluntary production cuts 

Three separate tranches of voluntary supply cuts were announced by OPEC+ between October 2022 and November 2023.  The last of these totaled 2.2 million b/d and was shouldered by eight countries, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman and Russia. These cuts have been lifted gradually since April 2025 and will be fully unwound by September 2025. 

OPEC+ has reaffirmed its compensation mechanism, which requires countries that previously exceeded their quotas to make up for overproduction through additional cuts. Consequently, the actual volumes reintroduced to the market are lower than the headline figures suggest, as some members are holding back barrels to fulfill compensation obligations. 

Our take: strong non-OPEC+ growth leaves little room for additional supply, increasing downward pressure on prices. Unwinding additional tranches would weaken prices well below current levels. 

Find out more 

Fill in the form to receive our insights on the latest developments in the following areas: 

• The long-term economics of exploration and the potential upside from recent discoveries. 

• How record US gas demand will lead to structural shifts in the market and a rise in prices. 

• How ADNOC is advancing marginal field strategy with four new concession awards. 

• How Qatar’s lifting of the moratorium on new developments in 2017 has sparked new expansions of its giant North Field.