US gas exports to Mexico surge amid early heat and supply constraints

Over the past week, US natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico have averaged above 7.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)—5% higher than last May’s seasonal peak and matching the all-time weekly record set in August 2024. On a year-to-date basis, exports are averaging about 0.3 bcfd (around 5%) higher than in 2024. 

What’s driving the increase? 

This May’s rapid rise in exports has been driven by a mix of short-term weather effects and longer-term structural trends. An early-season heatwave has boosted electricity demand, while limited hydro generation and reduced oil-fired power use have increased Mexico’s reliance on gas-fired generation. 

At the same time, persistently weak domestic dry gas output and growing utilisation at the Altamira FLNG terminal have reinforced structural demand for US pipeline gas. 

The bigger picture 

Alongside growing US LNG export capacity, exports to Mexico are emerging as a key pillar of structural demand growth for US gas this spring—even as more price and weather-sensitive sectors remain soft. 

US piped exports to are likely to see additional records this summer as recent growth expresses itself during the traditional peak season. Furthermore, structural growth in Mexican gas demand is expected to continue with new gas-fired power capacity and LNG export additions underway. While TC Energy recently announced completion of the Southeast Gateway pipeline, any significant upside in exports will likely depend on downstream infrastructure expansions, expected to come online gradually later this year through 2027. 

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