US gas production growth: a key factor in meeting energy goals
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Head of Trading Analytics and Proprietary Data, Natural Gas, Short-term Analytics
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As we look back on last week's Gastech 2023, US supply continues to play an increasing important and sometimes dynamic role in Global LNG markets. Energy security for nations both in Europe and Asia, as well as energy sufficiency to meet climate goals, both weigh on the need for continued growth of North American sourced LNG volumes – which in turn means a continued call for US Gas Production growth.
What's next for the global gas and LNG markets?
Rig counts are down. From a peak of 784 in November of 2022, latest Baker Hughes rig counts are down nearly 20% to ~630. Efficiencies continue to increase, and underlying declines also continue to flatten out. Though with gas in contango, our rig-based models forecast a return to production growth. In fact, our latest forecast of US gas production, based on this somewhat dynamic forward curve, calls for a growth to ~110 Bcfd by end of 2027, up ~9 Bcf from recent months’ production levels of ~101 Bcfd.
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