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We are excited to announce that as of February 1, Wood Mackenzie is a portfolio company of Veritas Capital, a leading investor at the intersection of technology and government. Our focus remains on providing you with the best intelligence, analytics, data and tools to ensure you are making the best data-driven business decisions with confidence.  

Read more in our news release here. 

A brief overview of North American power price trends by region

Based on our 1H 2018 long-term forecast from our North America Power & Renewables Service, carbon assumptions and higher gas prices provide room for both price and renewables in the North American power market:

  • With long-term gas prices expected to be $0.30 to $0.40/mmbtu higher by the 2030s, power prices rise relative to our H2 2017 outlook.
  • Regionally, gas prices project higher by as much as $0.50 to $0.75/mmbtu in places like the PJM, while Western gas prices show a slight downward revision as the lower gas price projections compound increasing renewable penetration. Prices here are $1.00 to $2.00/MWh lower on average in the long term.
  • Long-term prices in the Northeast are more predisposed to lower pressure given a concentration in off-shore wind development.
  • Conversely, some load pockets like ERCOT Houston show additional upward price pressure as they become increasingly isolated from renewable penetration in the forecast.
  • With changes in gas prices tending to account for much the movement in long-term power prices, heat rate deltas relative to our H2 2017 report tend to be more constrained than the absolute movement in power prices.