Adani gets environmental approval for Carmichael project

Following Adani's announcement on receiving final environmental approval for the Carmichael project, Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Viktor Tanevski said:

"Queensland’s thermal coal exports could grow stronger than forecast following the receipt of a final state government approval, which allows for the commencement of construction.

"We remain cautious on the timeframe for delivery of first coal onto a vessel given the sizeable task of building out both a new large-scale mine and greenfield rail connection. We anticipate at least a 12-month delay to Adani’s target of first coal exports, approximately two years from the commencement of construction, predominantly associated with delays in the construction of rail.

"Coal from the initial 10 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) phase of the project would be destined for India. Carmichael could initially displace sub-bituminous coal from Indonesia that is being consumed at Adani’s Mundra plant. Medium term plans to expand Carmichael to 27 Mtpa could add downward pressure to high ash coal prices, and negatively impact other high ash coal exports from Australia and South Africa.

"We estimate Carmichael breaks even at US$96/tonne on a Newcastle 6,000 equivalent basis assuming a 15% rate of return. However on a 10% basis, the breakeven is materially lower at US$80/tonne."