Data center demand drives US electrical equipment market to $65B, reshaping industry dynamics

The US data center electrical equipment market is projected to surge from $20 billion to $65 billion by 2030, with data centers capturing up to 40% of the total US electrical equipment market under accelerated scenarios—a dramatic rise from just under 2% in 2020, according to a recent Wood Mackenzie analysis.

US data center capacity is expected to increase from approximately 24 GW to 110 GW between 2026 and 2030, accounting for 68% of total load growth over the period. With a projected increase of more than 400,000 GWh, data centers are expected to consume eight times more electricity than electric vehicles over the same timeframe—representing one of the most concentrated surges in electrical power demand in modern history.

The surge is exacerbating equipment bottlenecks, with lead times for critical components already at 18-36 months, driving prices higher and potentially delaying projects, according to the report “The US data center electrical equipment market: a structural shift in demand” from Wood Mackenzie.

Massive pipeline searching for power

The scale of planned development underscores the urgency. Of Wood Mackenzie's US data center pipeline, approximately 600 GW of projects are still searching for power capacity, compared with just 183 GW that have signed construction or electricity supply agreements with utilities. Even accounting for expected project attrition, grid-connected data center capacity is expected to nearly quadruple in the next four years.

Two scenarios define the outlook

Wood Mackenzie's analysis presents two demand scenarios:

Moderated Demand reflects a baseline where current bottlenecks persist—18-to-36-month equipment lead times remain entrenched, manufacturers struggle to rapidly expand capacity, and multi-year grid interconnection queues continue to dictate the pace of development. Under this scenario, data centers reach approximately 95 GW by 2030.

Accelerated Demand reflects an industry-wide mobilization to overcome these hurdles, assuming massive capital investments successfully scale equipment manufacturing, and developers widely adopt alternative solutions—such as behind-the-meter generation and prefabricated modular construction—to bypass traditional grid and labor delays. This scenario projects data center capacity reaching 259 GW by 2050.

Unprecedented equipment demand

The scale of equipment required is staggering. In the hyperscale segment alone, padmount transformers are forecast to grow from 1,573 units in 2025 to 9,395 by 2030, while panel boards will expand from 5,111 to over 30,500 units. Switching and protection equipment faces similar pressure—MV switchgear and automatic transfer switches (ATS) are each projected to grow from 786 to 4,698 units over the same period, and PDUs from 1,966 to 11,745 units.

Market transformation underway

"Data centers are fundamentally different from any load the electrical equipment industry has supported before," said Ben Boucher, senior analyst, supply chain for Wood Mackenzie. "This is a structural shift that will define the next decade of the electrical equipment market."

Boucher emphasized the supply chain implications: "Manufacturers face a stark choice: invest significant capital to expand capacity, or cede market share in what could be a $65 billion market by 2030. The alternative—constrained supply—will slow the entire AI infrastructure buildout."

On pricing dynamics, Boucher noted: "We're already seeing manufacturers return to customers with year-old purchase orders to impose 20% price increases just to maintain delivery schedules. Hyperscalers are willing to pay these premiums because missing a launch window risks massive revenue losses."