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Shell's Prelude ships first LNG cargo

Following the announcement on Shell's Prelude project shipping its first LNG cargo, Wood Mackenzie's senior analyst Daniel Toleman shared the following commentary:

"The Spanish flagged Valencia Knutsen has shipped Prelude's first LNG cargo. The first cargo was more than eight years after FID and nearly two years after the facility arrived in Australia.

"How fast Prelude delivers its second and third cargo, and ramps up to plateau output will be a key indicator of success. Shell will be keen to ramp up to full production quickly to counteract any reserves impact from the already producing and connected Ichthys field.

"The Prelude facility will be backfilled by Crux, which entered FEED this year. We expect an FID late next year with first production in 2025. In addition, later this year Shell will spud the Bratwurst exploration well. If a significant gas resource is discovered it is likely these volumes will be developed via the Prelude facility.  

"With Prelude onstream, Australia is on track to export more than 80 mmtpa of LNG, which surpasses Qatar as the largest LNG producer in the world.

"The completion of Prelude marks the end of the Australian greenfield LNG boom. The next investment cycle is already in sight, with backfill projects – Scarborough, Barossa, Browse, Arrow and Crux – vying for FID."

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