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Global steam cracker closure threat update 2026
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Report summary
The global ethylene industry is grappling with oversupply and margin compression, driven by China's capacity overbuild and a weak macroeconomic backdrop. Global operating rates sit at 82% in 2026, with over 7 Mt of capacity already closed across Europe and Asia since 2022, and a further ~9 Mt of announced closures expected through 2030. Using Wood Mackenzie's E-ABT, we identified 117 assets at risk from 330 existing assets - representing 27% of 2026 global capacity. More than half falls in the high or medium-risk categories, with Asia and Europe the most exposed regions. If all at-risk capacity exits by 2031, global operating rates could return to historical highs. Retirement of high- and medium-risk assets alone could lift rates by 3%, marking a critical inflection point for industry economics.
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