Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook April 2022

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01 May 2022

China coal short-term outlook April 2022

Report summary

The coal market was highly volatile in April. The QHD price dropped to roughly RMB400/t in the first two weeks due to strong domestic supply and the lockdowns in Shanghai and many other cities. However, the low inventory at ports and a slump in seaborne imports reversed the downward trend in the second half of the month. Steel mills’ appetite for restocking has supported the high metallurgical coal price. However, the expected steel demand recovery has been interrupted multiple times by the pandemic, challenging the patience of market participants. Steelmaking’s slim margin has undermined possible further coal price upticks. Please read our report to find out more.

Table of contents

  • Weak demand as Covid lockdowns drove the market
  • Lingering pandemic disrupting the restocking of coal and supporting the price
  • Weather and Covid curtail power coal demand
  • Steel production resumes but is questionable
  • China reported 12.77 Mt of daily output in March

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Coal markets - China short-term outlook data - Apr 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 401.25 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook April 2022

    PDF 1.07 MB