Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook August 2020: prices recovery needs stronger demand
Report summary
Thermal coal prices declined in August due to high inventory and strong hydro power generation, but a couple of derailments on the Daqin railway line prevented prices sliding further in the second half of the month. We expect prices will find some support when power plants start restocking in September. In contrast, domestic metallurgical coal miners have been struggling to see any price recovery. Their inventory is at a two-year high and is unlikely to ease in the short run, despite steel production being strong. To find out more, read our report.
Table of contents
- QHD price is now at a bottom to the end of the year
- Strong imports hinder domestic coking coal price recovery
- Floods curtailed thermal coal demand in July and into August
- Steel inventory builds on prospect of major demand recovery, but risks accumulate
- Output constrained amid supply disruptions
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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