Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook December 2018: Prices fall ahead of imports resuming in new year
Report summary
Since China’s imports for the first 11 months of 2018 reached 271 Mt – the same as the whole of 2017 and the limit for 2018 – there shouldn’t have been any imports in December. However, a slump in domestic thermal coal prices in the last month of 2018 suggests otherwise. With the Chinese new year holiday approaching and imports resuming, we expect thermal coal prices to remain on a downward trend in January. Metallurgical coal prices were also pressured in December, though not as much as thermal coal. High-sulphur premium HCC and weaker quality coking coal fell by RMB30-100/t while low-sulphur premium HCC prices held up. Benchmark Liulin #4 prices strengthened further by RMB10/t to RMB1,760/t through the month. We expect resuming imports will be the key driver pushing prices down in January.
Table of contents
- Prices fall despite limited imports
- Metallurgical coal prices lose steam on softening demand
- Thermal coal demand increases on strong power sector demand in 2018
- Lower demand due to winter restrictions and lower steel prices
- Legal capacity shows net increment
- Domestic output continues to improve
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices - history and forecast, US$/t nominal
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
- Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
- Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
- Monthly hot metal production, Mt
- Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
- Thermal coal supply, Mt
- Metallurgical coal supply, Mt
What's included
This report contains:
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