China coal short-term outlook May 2023

Coal inventories at four ports in northern China reached record highs, as did coal imports in the first four months. As a result, the QHD price fell to the lowest in the year. We expect the oversupply status will continue in June until the summer arrives. No improvement was seen in steel demand in May, but steel mill operation rates remained high, despite some of them voluntarily suspending their blast furnace but then being brought back online quickly. Coal miners continued to deliver their margin spaces to the steel mills and coking plants, with no end in sight due to the strong supply. As such, the coking coal price will remain under pressure in the short term.