Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China’s thermal coal prices slid RMB25/t in October, underpinned by strong supply. With high inventory at gencos and strong supply, we believe the price for QHD 5,500 will fluctuate between RMB555/t and RMB570/t in November, assuming a mild winter. October prices for premium low-vol coking coals nosedived again, despite it being a peak demand month. Benchmark metallurgical coal Liulin #4 plummeted by RMB120/t to RMB1,410/t at the end of October, its lowest price since August 2017. We expect the fall in prices to moderate, with Liulin #4 likely dropping by RMB20/t to RMB1,390/t in November due to slightly improving demand.
Table of contents
- Strong supply pressures thermal coal price
- Metallurgical coal prices tumble on weaker market sentiment
- Stronger thermal coal demand as hydro generation weakens further
- Weaker economy curtails metallurgical coal demand
- September output strengthens, despite safety checks
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Key coal-producing regions September output
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
