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China coal short-term outlook September 2020: QHD price reaches RMB600/t

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02 October 2020

China coal short-term outlook September 2020: QHD price reaches RMB600/t

Report summary

Two derailments in August and maintenance scheduled in October on the Daqin railway line have limited thermal coal supply to ports. Meanwhile, seaborne thermal coal imports in August reached their lowest levels since December 2015 Tight supply has pushed the price for Qinhuangdao 5,500 up to RMB608/t at the end of September. Market participants believe the government will add supply to stabilise the QHD price soon – but will the recent price gains be reversed? Metallurgical coal prices have increased by RMB20-30/t in September on strong steel output as well as low inventory at mines. The outlook for the remaining quarter is for a balanced market as both supply and demand are likely to drop from current levels, with import volumes set to be another key driver of the domestic market. Please read our report for more details.

Table of contents

  • Tight supply drives coal price higher
  • Are prices sustainable above RMB600/t in October?
  • Coking coal restocking triggers minor price recovery
  • Expected colder weather set to drive thermal coal demand
  • Pressure on met coal demand offset by supply curtailment
  • Mild recovery in August
  • Renewed round of safety checks

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: historical and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Coal markets - China short-term outlook data - Sep 2020.xlsx

    XLSX 436.69 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook September 2020: QHD price reaches RMB600/t

    PDF 909.81 KB