Insight
China's latest 276-day policy easing offers no quick fix for coking coal
Report summary
On 17 November, China further relaxes its 276-day production limit to all safety-compliant legal mines until March 2017. We expect all operating legal mines to be qualified for this easing standard. However, the loosening is unlikely to quickly boost domestic coking coal output in the country. We expect there to be around 5 Mt of extra coking coal supply in Q4, which can not fill the supply deficiency in Q4 at 16.9 Mt. A sluggish supply response means Chinese steel mills will continue sourcing higher volumes of hard coking coal from Mongolia and Australia to meet demand, and will play a crucial role in spot price formation in the seaborne market in the very near term.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Unexpected price hikes prompt need to relax production limits
- Why will Chinese coking coal mines take more time to raise output?
- Outlook for Chinese coking coal production
- Outlook for China's coking coal supply-demand balance
Tables and charts
This report includes 3 images and tables including:
- Implications of 276-day policy on coking coal production and spot prices
- Quarterly coking coal production (2014-2016)
- China coking coal supply and demand balance (Q1 2015 to Q1 2017), Mt
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
China coal 10-year investment horizon outlook - 2023
China’s coal demand is on an inevitable decline, more so for metallurgical coal.
$10,000
Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal 10-year investment horizon outlook - 2023
Will investing in metallurgical coal pay off over the next decade?
$10,000
Commodity Market Report
Global steel markets short-term outlook January 2024
2023 ended with flattish production; mild recovery anticipated in 2024
$5,000