Coal Market Service China coal 2021 outlook to 2050

China’s aim to become carbon neutral will be the main driver of the coal market both near and long term. We expect demand for thermal coal will fall significantly. The tightness of supply will move to oversupply in the medium term. As a result, both domestic supply and seaborne imports will fall largely to fit demand. However, we do not expect the coal price to slump to below RMB500/t as the government will help to rationalise the industry. We still expect hot metal and metallurgical coal demand to peak in 2021 before falling for the rest of our forecast period. Accordingly, due to the demand decline, the domestic coking coal price will weaken over the next 10 years after the price uptick in 2021. From 2030, domestic coking coal supply shrinkage and increasing costs will result in a mild price recovery to RMB1,500/t in 2050. And imports will stay above 50 Mt. For more details, please read our report.