Commodity Market Report
Coal Market Service metallurgical trade 2021 outlook to 2050
Report summary
For much of this year, global metallurgical coal has drifted behind a high-flying steel market, while China’s ban on Australian coal continues to bifurcate the market. But, it is worth remembering that the travails of today’s market are but one small chapter in the long story of the metallurgical coal trade. Urbanisation, industrialisation and decarbonisation will dominate market themes over the next 30 years.
Table of contents
- Key considerations
-
Current outlook at a glance
- DEMAND
- Decarbonisation and green steel considerations in base case
- Hydrogen replacement of PCI
- Base case scrap use
- Hydrogen-based DRI
- SUPPLY
- Current price outlook overview
-
Forecast breakdown
- 2020-2025: China ban complicating the mid-term outlook
- Risks 2021-2025
- 2025-2030: Market tightens as premium supply comes under pressure
- Risks 2026-2030
- 2031-2040: Solid period of growth punctuated by emerging decarbonisation and supply concerns
- 2041-2050: Hydrogen proliferates but metallurgical coal holds its ground
- Risks 2041-2050
- Overview
- SSCC grows but faces competition from semi-hards
- PCI fortunes grow but long-term hydrogen market weighs on demand
- Key trends
-
Supply forecast overview
- Australia
- United States
- Canada
- Russia
- Indonesia
- Mozambique
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- Global crude steel production
- Global BOF steel production
- Global EAF steel production
- Long-term Indian crude steel, hot metal, coke production and coal imports
- Long-term Chinese crude steel, hot metal, coke production and coal imports
- Demand change 2021 to 2050
- Supply change 2021 to 2050
- Queensland HCC Benchmark - US$/t (real 2021$)
- Breakeven curve
- HCC total cash cost curve 2021
- Supply change by coal type and %
- HCC demand versus operating capacity
- Incentive price curve
What's included
This report contains:
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