Coal markets - North America short-term outlook - June 2021

The warmer-than-average summer has arrived early, natural gas prices are pushing into the upper US$3/mmbtu range, and our previously forecasted opportunity for coal generators is upon us. Supply remains the question, however, and while railcar loadings appear to have picked up, demand is clearly outpacing them. To counteract coal price increases, we expect generators will draw down stockpiles in the summer months. Suppliers, however, remain labor-constrained, and will therefore mostly focus on contracted deliveries in the short run – or in the rare event residual tons are available, place them into the red-hot seaborne market.