With European thermal coal prices hovering at US$60/t market participants are asking: when does the US come back into the export market? Since January the delivered cost curve has moved upwards by US$4 5/t and available capacity has contracted. This allows for the main US suppliers to be more or less "in the money" in theory. There should be an opportunity for an additional 3 5 Mt if prices are sustained at current levels. But the picture is muddied by available capacity US domestic demand shipments from global competitors and size of the market in the Atlantic.