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Europe at US$60/t: when do US thermal coals become competitive?

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Report summary

With European thermal coal prices hovering at US$60/t, market participants are asking: when does the US come back into the export market? Since January, the delivered cost curve has moved upwards by US$4-5/t, and available capacity has contracted. This allows for the main US suppliers to be more-or-less "in the money", in theory. There should be an opportunity for an additional 3-5 Mt if prices are sustained at current levels. But the picture is muddied by available capacity, US domestic demand, shipments from global competitors, and size of the market in the Atlantic.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Europe at US$60/t: when do US thermal coals become competitive?

    PDF 286.53 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • The delivered cost curve moves upwards
  • Supply capacity tightness: what does a realistic curve look like?
  • US exports and ability to ship

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

Images

  • European delivered cost curve evolution: January to August 2016
  • South African thermal exports: destinations and volumes (Mt)
  • Delivered cost curve: with capacity restrictions
  • US stockpiles – near record levels, and likely to be burned down quickly

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