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Fenoco railway curfew is the latest setback for Colombian producers

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Report summary

The suspension of overnight shipments by the Fenoco railway is the latest setback for Colombian producers following a series of labour strikes and flooding over the past several years. Our base case forecast for 2015 exports is 84.2 million tonnes representing a growth of 8% over the 78.1 million tonnes exported in 2014. However we estimate the impact of the curfew to be 6.7 million tonnes which would result in a decline in exports of 1% compared to last year.

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Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

Images

  • Fenoco curfew long-term impact
  • Atlantic market coal supply margins at ARA prices at US$63/t – energy adjusted

Tables

  • Fenoco curfew impact on 2015 production

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