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Fenoco railway curfew is the latest setback for Colombian producers

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18 February 2015

Fenoco railway curfew is the latest setback for Colombian producers

Report summary

The suspension of overnight shipments by the Fenoco railway is the latest setback for Colombian producers following a series of labour strikes and flooding over the past several years. Our base case forecast for 2015 exports is 84.2 million tonnes, representing a growth of 8% over the 78.1 million tonnes exported in 2014. However, we estimate the impact of the curfew to be 6.7 million tonnes, which would result in a decline in exports of 1% compared to last year.

Table of contents

    • Court suspends overnight Fenoco operations
    • A full year ban will cost both producers and the government
    • Big impact in the short-term, but minimal in the long-term
    • Thermal market implications/opportunities

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Fenoco curfew impact on 2015 production
  • Fenoco curfew long-term impact
  • Atlantic market coal supply margins at ARA prices at US$63/t – energy adjusted

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Fenoco railway curfew is the latest setback for Colombian producers

    PDF 285.45 KB

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